Not all NFL schedules are created equal. Yes, every team gets 17 games in 18 weeks, but there are a multitude of factors that go into assessing teams’ prospects for their season slates. There are the easy ones, like using last year’s records to determine strength of schedule, and slightly more difficult ones, like using the projected opponents’ records to tabulate strength of schedule. There are other factors, too — rest advantages and disadvantages, bye week timing, location, weather, etc. And the NFL doesn’t appear to try to even out some of those factors, either.
We could go on and on. But with the schedule’s set, we can try to roll all the different factors into one and note which teams are in for the toughest sledding overall.
There are, of course, the bottom dwellers. Teams such as the Cardinals and Dolphins who are likely in for tough years regardless of the opponents because Arizona’s and Miami’s rosters are simply not strong enough in enough areas. Perhaps they surprise here or there, but in all likelihood, we’ll be doing mock drafts rather than playoff projections for those teams as the season winds down.
Then there are the teams who might be in for quite the battle despite being good. That’s the way the cookie crumbles. Sometimes you’re stuck in a loaded conference — think of the 2025 NFC West, which produced three playoff teams, all with 11+ wins, and the Super Bowl champion. Sometimes a team that looked to be an easy opponent when the schedule was released ends up being a much better one.
Here are five such teams who fit the bill: teams with enough talent to be a playoff contender but a difficult path to make those projections realities.
Green Bay Packers
Shortly before the NFL schedule came out, ESPN’s Adam Schefter declared Micah Parsons is likely to miss the start of the season as he recovers from a torn ACL. That was on the Packers radar — the injury happened in December, after all — but it’s a tough development nonetheless.
Then the schedule came out, and Green Bay may have breathed a sigh of relief with the Vikings, Jets, Falcons and Buccaneers as the first four opponents. Perhaps Parsons returns after that. But Parsons returning and Parsons at full strength are two different things. Just as he could be getting his legs under him, the Packers face the Bears, Cowboys and Lions from Weeks 5-7 before a short week against the Panthers, who beat Green Bay last year.
According to Sharp Football Analysis, the Packers have five games in which they’ll have less rest than their opponent does. That includes a potentially crucial Christmas Day game (Friday) at the Bears in Week 16; Chicago gets to play on Saturday in Week 15, while the Packers play Sunday. Add in that the Lions and Vikings could both be much improved this season, and Green Bay could be in for some tough sledding.
Los Angeles Chargers
The schedule makers similarly did the Chargers a disservice when it comes to rest. Jim Harbaugh’s team will have a rest disadvantage in seven games this season. Plus there is an absolutely brutal schedule for them from Weeks 3-10
- Week 3: at Bills
- Week 4: at Seahawks
- Week 5: vs. Broncos
- Week 6: at Chiefs
- Week 7: BYE
- Week 8: at Rams
- Week 9: Texans
- Week 10: at Ravens
During that run, the Bills are coming off a mini bye, the Chiefs are coming off a bye, the Texans are coming off a bye, and the Ravens are coming off a mini bye. Three of those four games are on the road.
Oh, and let’s not forget that the Broncos — who were in the AFC Championship last year — and the Chiefs, with a healthy Patrick Mahomes are divisional opponents. Even the Raiders should be improved this year, considering it’s nearly impossible for them to be worse than they were last year.
Chicago Bears
The Bears were one of three teams, along with the Jaguars and the Patriots, to jump from five or fewer wins in 2024 to 11 or more wins in 2025.
That type of jump is awesome, and anecdotally, it points to an arrow pointing up. Unfortunately in the NFL, progress like this is rarely linear, and a big jump one year, historically, has meant a relative fall the next year. In fact, only one of the seven teams to make that jump since 2015 improved their record again the following year.
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2024 Commanders
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12-5
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5-12
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2024 Chargers
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11-6
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11-6
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2019 49ers
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13-3
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6-10
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2018 Bears
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12-4
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8-8
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2018 Texans
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11-5
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10-6
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2017 Rams
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11-5
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13-3
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2016 Cowboys
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13-3
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9-7
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There’s also bad precedent for 11-win teams who had a +30 or worse point differential. Maybe Ben Johnson is the next coming of Sean McVay, and the Bears just keep going up. But add in the Chicago’s projected sixth-hardest schedule, and it’s a tall task.
Dallas Cowboys
Much has been made of the Cowboys’ offseason attempts to address their leaky defense. Safety Caleb Downs with the 11th pick and EDGE Malachi Lawrence with the 23rd. Jalen Thompson at safety. Rashawn Gary on the edge. Dee Winters at linebacker. Jaishawn Barham, LT Overton and Devin Moore all in the draft, too. Add in a full season of Quinnen Williams, and, viola, a defense fit to at least be viable — and viable is all Dallas needs, maybe.
But this schedule is no joke. The Cowboys get an early stretch (Weeks 3-7) of …
- vs. Ravens (in Rio de Janeiro)
- at Texans
- vs. Buccaneers
- at Packers
- at Eagles
They also have a similarly tough stretch in the second half (Weeks 12-16) of …
- vs. Eagles (Thanksgiving)
- at Seahawks
- BYE
- at Rams
- vs. Jaguars
Only the Cardinals, Dolphins and Panthers have a tougher projected schedule, and let’s not forget Dak Prescott hasn’t had consecutive fully healthy seasons since 2018-19. Even modest defensive improvement could get Dallas back to the playoffs, but a lot has to go right.
New England Patriots
You may have heard about the Patriots’ historically difficult start to the season, but in case you haven’t, here’s Weeks 1-4.
- at Seahawks
- Steelers
- at Jaguars
- at Bills
The .721 combined opponent win percentage is the hardest four-game start in 40 years. The first three of those opponents were division winners last year, and the fourth has Josh Allen. Yikes!
Even after the seas calm, there are other difficult aspects: a “Thursday Night Football” Week 7 game at the Bears, a “Sunday Night Football” Week 12 game at the Chargers followed by a potentially crucial game against the Bills in Week 13 and then another short week, this time in Week 14 against the Vikings. New England also visits Kansas City in Week 15 and hosts Denver in Week 17. The Patriots benefited from a weak schedule last year. They won’t do the same this year.
