Dominic Canzone got cold right around the time the Mariners finally unveiled they would be giving him a chance as a full-time player. That’s pretty unfortunate timing for a guy who really needs to prove their faith in him isn’t misplaced.
Well, Tuesday was a very good game for Canzone, then. He homered twice, once off lefty starter Justin Wrobleski and then later against lefty reliever Alex Vesia. Neither is an especially easy feat, and he also had a 103.9 mph groundout off Wrobleski, so he was really seeing the southpaws well in this one.
And really, that’s been the case overall, as he has a totally manageable 22% strikeout rate against lefties with four homers in 45 plate appearances for the season – he had just one career homer against lefties in 109 plate appearances entering the season. It’s still a tiny sample size, but Canzone has proven he can hammer righties, so if he can just hold his own against lefties, that would be huge.
And he just might be able to do more than hold his own these days. Canzone is just 64% rostered right now, and while his success against lefties should be treated with skepticism, it’s also enough for me to think he might just need to be rostered in all Fantasy leagues, just in case.
Pre-game Lineup Card
Here’s what you might have missed from CBSSports.com’s MLB coverage in recent days:
Deadline preview. Scott White looks at 31 players whose Fantasy value could change at the trade deadline.
Skubal trade preview. The Tigers are slumping their way into a Tarik Skubal trade, Matt Snyder says.
Deadline dilemma. The Cardinals are at a crossroads at the deadline, and Dayn Perry says which path they take could impact the organization for years.
Deadline preview. Matt Snyder takes a look at which teams are buyers and sellers ahead of the deadline.
Prospects to know. Mike Axisa looks at 10 prospects who could be on the move at the deadline.
Hitting the Wire
The top waiver-wire targets from Tuesday’s action:
Dylan Crews, OF, Nationals (50%) – We’ve mostly had to talk about Crews in theoretical terms in his MLB career so far, but that’s starting to change. He homered Tuesday against the Blue Jays, his third in the past eight games and fourth in the month of July, while putting up an OPS north of .800 for the month. We’re still seeing a bit too much swing-and-miss from Crews, but he has the highest average exit velocity and expected wOBA on contact of his career while remaining a good baserunner. I think the superstar outcomes are probably off the table for Crews at this point, but he’s also on pretty close to a 25-homer, 20-steal pace this season, which would still be a pretty good outcome for a 24-year-old.
Pedro Ramirez, 2B, Cubs (8%) – Ramirez definitely looks like he belongs in the majors – after a three-hit game Tuesday, he’s hitting .322 with an .833 OPS in his first 35 games. He’s playing a bit more regularly lately, but there’s always likely going to be some limitations on his role with the Cubs as presently constructed; with the trade deadline less than a week away right now, it might make sense to add Ramirez anyway in the hope that he’ll find a new home and an everyday job. The contact skills are playing right now, and while the power has been disappointing, he’s running enough to think he can be a pretty viable Fantasy option if he locks down a true everyday role, especially with eligibility at both third and second base. This might be a chance to beat the waiver wire ahead of next week’s deadline.
Brandon Pfaadt, SP, Diamondbacks (47%) – The results have been there, as Pfaadt lowered his ERA to 1.85 since his return from Triple-A in late June with seven shutout innings against the Pirates Tuesday. I know the results are all many of you care about, and if you picked Pfaadt up already, it’s worked out really well for you so far. But we’re in the business of trying to predict what will happen moving forward, and I still think there’s basically nothing sustainable about this at all. He struck out four against the Pirates, which is actually his second-highest total for a start since his return – he has 18 strikeouts in 35 innings so far, which is just totally untenable in modern baseball. Sure, his control has been excellent and he’s allowed just one homer, which explains why he’s managed to make it work so far, and maybe he’ll keep doing that for a while – Eduardo Rodriguez keeps getting away with it. But I don’t really see much reason to rush out and add Pfaadt despite the results.
A.J. Smith-Shawver, SP, Braves (33%) – Here’s one that snuck up on me: Smith-Shawver is just 23 years old, despite debuting back in 2023 and already having gone through an entire Tommy John surgery rehab and recovery process. That process looks like it’s going to come to an end Wednesday, as he gets set to make his first start in the majors since May of last season. He’s averaging 97.1 mph on his four-seamer during his rehab assignment, putting up a 1.53 ERA with 21 strikeouts in 17.2 innings across five starts, and while I don’t think he needs to be viewed as a must-add Fantasy option, he’s someone I’m going to be watching very closely on Wednesday against the Mets.
Eduardo Valencia, DH, Tigers (3%) – It’d be even easier to recommend Valencia as an add if he already had catcher eligibility, but Tuesday was just his third appearance there. Still, he’s starting to make himself pretty indispensable for the Tigers, hitting two homers against the Orioles Tuesday to push his line to .529/.556/1.235. It’s only seven appearances, so take it with a boulder of salt, but Valencia also had 17 homers in 81 games at Triple-A this season, and he jumps to 30 in 131 games if you include what he did last season. There are manageable contact rates here in the minors and real pop, and I hope the Tigers start to give him more run, because he looks like a pretty interesting young hitter.
Three Up, Three Down
Three big performances that have players trending up, and three that have the arrow pointing in the opposite direction.
Three Up
Gavin Williams is destroying everyone right now
Williams struck out 12 Tuesday against the Reds, giving him four starts in a row now with 11 strikeouts – according to Sarah Langs, Williams is just the second pitcher since 1900 with four straight games of 10-plus strikeouts and one or fewer walks, joining Chris Sale back in 2018. What’s he doing differently in this stretch? Well, he’s simplified his arsenal a bit – he threw his sweeper and four-seamer a combined 81% of the time and he has been throwing them at least 60% of the time in July, up from less than 50% entering the month. And it’s probably the right call for Williams, as those are his two best pitches for both swings and misses and quality of contact suppression – though the curveball generally isn’t bad when he can command it well. As good as this stretch has been for Williams, he still has a five-run outing among these four starts, and his 3.71 ERA is remarkably run-of-the-mill for someone who can dominate like this. I think the way to approach Williams is that he is generally never quite as good as he looks at his best or as bad as he looks at his worst, but this recent stretch is forcing me to reconsider whether there isn’t another level he can reach. He just has to find some consistency, that trait that has eluded him for his entire career. No sweat!
Sandy Alcantara keeps rolling
It’s been a bit of a bumpy ride at times, but if you took the chance on Alcantara, you’ve mostly been rewarded – and rather handsomely rewarded of late. He limited the Phillies to just four hits and a walk over seven shutout innings Tuesday, his fourth start of at least seven innings in his past five. Zoom out a bit and he’s done it seven times in 11 starts since June 1, and he has a 2.99 ERA and 1.09 WHIP while averaging close to seven innings per start in that stretch. The strikeout numbers are a bit underwhelming, but they’ve never been great with Alcantara and he still finds ways to be effective. Outside of May, when he had a 7.39 ERA, Alcantara has been very good this season, and he’s back to being at least a top-40 starting pitcher in Fantasy.
Looking ahead to 2027 with Kevin McGonigle
McGonigle is one of the most interesting players to figure out how to rank for 2027. How he finishes the season will obviously play a role, but right now, he’s a tremendously talented 21-year-old who genuinely has one of the best hit tools in baseball, but otherwise doesn’t have a hugely Fantasy-friendly skill set. Despite how good he has been this season (.289/.393/.423 line), he’s just the No. 10 shortstop in Roto, just ahead of Nasim Nunez and behind JJ Wetherholt. That’s not bad, but his limited game power and just okay speed are holding him back. But given how young he is and how in control he has been from the jump, I think he’s almost certainly going to be drafted significantly higher than his final stats will justify as a rookie. Right now, he’s a fringe top-75 player in Roto, but I think he’ll be at least a fourth-round pick by the time draft season rolls around.
Three Down
Shane Bieber might be finished
Is that an overreaction? He wasn’t terrible prior to Tuesday’s start, but he wasn’t great – he had just one earned run allowed in his previous two starts, but also had just nine strikeouts in 13 innings. And then the bottom fell out Tuesday as he didn’t even make it out of the first inning, walking six of nine hitters he faced before he was pulled. Again, it might be an overreaction, but that’s the kind of start that can’t help but raise red flags, especially because Bieber hasn’t given us much reason to be excited about him since his return from a forearm issue. Through 31.1 innings, he has 22 strikeouts to 18 walks while allowing seven homers – disastrous numbers all around. I don’t think Bieber needs to be rostered in basically any mixed leagues at this point.
The regression caught up to Michael McGreevy
There are always pitchers finding success whose success doesn’t exactly make a lot of sense, and I’m always wary of actually relying on them. Sure, there can be value in relying on the hot hand – McGreevy had a sub-3.00 ERA before the past two starts! – but you also need to know when to say goodbye before the regression monster comes and undoes all of the good they were doing. McGreevy’s season-long ERA has risen more than a half-run in the past two starts after his disastrous outing Tuesday against the Cubs, who put up seven runs on eight hits in 1.2 innings on his head, and hey, we’ll take a 3.57 ERA from a streamer. But the key is, you have to say bye now. McGreevy entered this start with a 5.46 expected ERA, making him one of the more obviously lucky pitchers in baseball this season. There is more regression to come, and if you stick around, he could really undo the good he already did. So, say “thank you” and politely send him on his way.
It’s time to give up on Bubba Chandler
Velocity isn’t everything. Logan Henderson might be an ace and he’s a right-handed pitcher who averages 93 mph with his fastball. But velocity is a proxy for upside, and the fact that Chandler throws in the high-90s would seem to imply he has a ton of upside, which is why I’ve never really been able to give up on him. I think there will be a time when Chandler lives up to the potential, and I want to be around when he does. But he just doesn’t miss enough bats to actually live up to that potential right now, especially when his command is still so iffy. Those two aspects of Chandler’s game are almost certainly linked, and I suspect he’ll take off when he finally figures the command part of things out. But he had just eight whiffs on 91 pitches Tuesday and gave up four runs in four innings, and he has just a 10% swinging strike rate on the season, a shockingly pedestrian number. I may not want to give up on Chandler, but it’s past time to do it.
Extra Innings
What’s Chase Burns’ rest-of-season outlook?
Burns was perfectly solid Tuesday, limiting the Guardians to one run over five innings. Four strikeouts isn’t what we’re looking for from him, and might be explained by a 1.1-1.8 mph dip in velocity across his arsenal in this one. Typically, that’s easy enough to write off, especially when it comes as a one-off like this. But I do want to spend a little while focusing on Burns here just because I’ve noticed a lot of handwringing about what his role might look like down the stretch. He reached a career-high in innings Tuesday, putting him at 112.2 – he got up to 111 if you include the minors and playoffs last season, so I think it’s reason to expect something like 150-160 innings from Burns this season on the high end. He averages right around 5.6 innings per start, so nine more starts at that pace would get him to right around 160 – 163.4, to be exact.
I’m not saying there’s nothing to be concerned about here, especially as the Reds sit five games out of the final Wild Card spot with five teams ahead of them. The Reds don’t look likely to have much to play for in September, so they might decide Burns doesn’t need to make every single start down the stretch. And I’m pretty confident we’re going to see plenty of five-inning starts like Tuesday’s, where he didn’t quite reach 90 pitches. I would guess Burns doesn’t quite get past 160 innings, in other words.
That being reported: I don’t think we’re going to see an especially early shutdown for Burns, either. The Reds need to build his innings up at some point, and they already limited him late last season by moving him to the bullpen after an elbow injury. I think he probably has another 40 innings left in him at least, and while there’s some risk he doesn’t pitch in the final few weeks of another lost season for the Reds, I don’t think the shutdown is going to come early enough to really impact his Fantasy appeal down the stretch. It’s just a guess, but I’m not looking to get rid of Burns just because of these concerns.
