When I write the waiver-wire newsletter on Sunday, I’m usually writing while a bunch of games are still going on. That’s unavoidable, given the timing involved, but sometimes it means I might miss a notable performance that should have been included.
This week, that meant I didn’t see Sean Manaea’s brilliant start against the Pirates until it was too late. He limited them to just one run on three hits over seven innings, striking out 11 and walking none. It’s by far Manaea’s best start of the season and probably his best since his magical run to close out the 2024 season. It is the closest he’s looked to that 2024 run since, and not just in the box score.
That 2024 run – where he had a 3.48 ERA and 88 strikeouts in 85.1 innings after the All-Star break – was fueled by two changes Manaea made: One involved lowering his arm angle and the other involved ditching his sinker. Manaea has held the lower arm slot over the past two seasons, but he brought the sinker back this season, despite allowing a .378 xwOBA and just a 7.6% whiff rate on the pitch, the worst marks of any pitch in his arsenal.
Well, according to Statcast, he threw just two sinkers Sunday, and wouldn’t you know it, he looked a lot more like his 2024 self. While looking a lot more like his 2024 self, that wasn’t the only change. He was also throwing his four-seamer 2 mph harder in this start than he has been this season, a change we can’t necessarily count on repeating – but it’s the one that stands out the most, since we’ve seen it work for him before.
That doesn’t mean it will continue to work. Heck, it doesn’t even necessarily mean Manaea will stick with these changes. But given the success he had, both Sunday and in 2024, I’m willing to bet on Manaea doubling down on it the next time out. It may not be enough to make him a must-start Fantasy option ever again, but it’s enough to make me interested in Manaea again. I’m looking to add him wherever I can coming out of the weekend now.
Pre-game Lineup Card
Here’s what you might have missed from CBSSports.com’s MLB coverage in recent days:
Week 21 sleeper hitters
Best hitter matchups for Week 21
1. Rangers @LAA4, @ATH3
2. Cubs @WAS3, STL3
3. Giants HOU3, COL3
4. Rays @ATH3, BAL3
5. Mets @ATL3, WAS3
Worst hitter matchups for Week 21
1. Padres MIL3, @CLE3
2. Tigers CLE3, CHW3
3. Cardinals PHI3, @CHC3
4. Blue Jays BOS4, NYY3
5. Yankees SEA3, @TOR3
Top sleeper hitters for Week 21
- Ezequiel Duran, SS, Rangers (77%) @LAA4, @ATH3
- A.J. Ewing, OF, Mets (68%) @ATL3, WAS3
- Andrew Vaughn, 1B, Brewers (28%) @SD3, @LAD4
- Bryce Eldridge, 1B, Giants (66%) HOU3, COL3
- Jung Hoo Lee, OF, Giants (75%) HOU3, COL3
Week 21 sleeper pitchers
You can check out Scott’s two-start pitcher rankings here, too. He ranks every projected two-start pitcher for the upcoming week, tiering them from must-starts to no-thanks.
Top sleeper pitchers for Week 21
- Noah Cameron, Royals (77%) at LAD, at LAA
- Roki Sasaki, Dodgers (77%) vs. KC
- Walbert Urena, Angels (66%) vs. TEX
- Dustin May, Brewers (65%) at SD
- J.T. Ginn, Athletics (67%) vs. TEX
Hitting the Wire
The top waiver-wire targets from this weekend’s action:
Week 21 waiver targets
- C: Endy Rodriguez, Pirates (25%)
- 1B: Spencer Horwitz, Pirates (41%)
- 2B: Bryson Stott, Phillies (70%)
- 3B: Royce Lewis, Twins (72%)
- SS: George Lombard, Yankees (63%)/Kaelen Culpepper, Twins (31%)/Angel Genao, Guardians (28%)
- OF: Dominic Canzone, Mariners (73%), Spencer Jones, Yankees (41%), Jake Mangum, Pirates (29%), Ryan Waldschmidt, Diamondbacks (26%), Griffin Conine, Marlins (15%)
- SP: Shane Baz, Orioles (68%), Gage Jump, Athletics (44%), Sean Manaea, Mets (41%), Jackson Jobe, Tigers (47%), Tyler Mahle, Braves (26%)
- RP: Brandyn Garcia, Diamondbacks (39%), Sammy Natera, Angels (5%)
For more deep-league targets, plus my thoughts on each of those players and more, head here.
Three Up, Three Down
Three big performances that have players trending up, and three that have the arrow pointing in the opposite direction.
Three Up
Payton Tolle reached a new high
Tolle’s fastball is always going to be his bread and butter, but there seems to be another key for him unlocking another level: His curveball. He threw it 18% of the time in his start Friday against the Athletics, matching his season-high mark, and he put together his very best start of the season, generating 14 strikeouts over six one-run innings. The curveball generated five whiffs on six swings and led to five of his strikeouts, while the four-seamer did much of the heavy lifting otherwise, as it so often does. Tolle is probably always going to be pretty fastball-forward, given the three generally very good variations he has in his arsenal – the four-seamer, cutter, and sinker – all of which makes him very much like Cam Schlitter, the Red Sox archnemesis. And like Schlittler, the curveball sits out there as a huge weapon if he ever needs it, as he is sporting a 49% whiff rate with the pitch on the season. Tolle has been quite good this season, but it’s not out of the question he could get even better in the future.
Jac Caglianone is red-hot again
It’s too early for any declarative statements with Caglianone, beyond, I guess, “He’s super talented and inconsistent!” How good is he? Well, it depends on what day, week, or month you happen to be asking. In June, he put up a 1.036 OPS and looked like he was making the leap we’ve been waiting for; then he slumped badly in July and might have even been dropped in some shallower leagues. Well, he’s intent on making you regret it if that was you, because he homered twice as part of a 7-for-12 weekend and has homered four times in his past 10 games. Maybe he’s just inconsistent? So far, at least, he’s definitely that, and part of the issue is that he’s regressed a bit when it comes to elevating the ball with authority, with his average launch angle back down to 7 degrees in July and August; it was 10-11 degrees in May and June. He’s making a ton of contact in a very small sample size so far in August, and that, combined with a 94.1 mph average exit velocity, is helping him overcome his issues with consistently elevating the ball, but we’d still like to see Caglianone truly put it all together for more than just a couple of weeks. Until that happens, we’ll certainly keep chasing these hot streaks.
Eduardo Rodriguez actually looked great
I’ve been a vocal skeptic of Rodriguez’s success, but his excellent start against the Dodgers this weekend was different. He limited the mighty Dodgers to just two runs over six innings of work in that start Sunday, and he did it while striking out nine – he had just 10 combined strikeouts in his previous three starts and had more than five in just two starts, both of which came in May. This was a decidedly different version of Rodriguez, and not just because of the box score; he also took nearly 3 mph off his changeup velocity while his fastball held steady, and the changeup added a couple of inches of drop for good measure. It was, in short, a decidedly better version of Rodriguez than we’ve seen all season, and if he suddenly figures out how to sustainably generate a bunch of strikeouts, I’ll be a lot more interested in him. But he still has an ERA more than two runs lower than his expected ERA for the season, and I don’t expect Sunday to represent a major turning point. He remains one of the more obvious sell-high candidates in the game (along with teammate Brandon Pfaadt, who somehow managed seven shutout innings against the Dodgers despite two strikeouts).
Three Down
Jose Soriano isn’t a new pitcher – yet
The Blue Jays surely have a plan for how to coax a bit more consistency out of Soriano, with manager John Schneider specifically referencing the success Dylan Cease has enjoyed in his first season with the team as a potential model for Soriano to follow. But there’s a big difference between signing with a team in the offseason and getting to work on a new approach during the low-stress environment of the offseason and Spring Training vs. having to do that on the fly against opponents with something to lose. So, I’m not expecting a totally different version of Soriano down the stretch, is what I’m saying. He did largely shelve his four-seamer in his first start with the Blue Jays, throwing it a season-low 11.7% of the time, instead throwing more curveballs and sinkers. That’s not nothing, but it didn’t fundamentally change Soriano’s reality in one start: He still struggled with efficiency en route to three walks and three strikeouts in 4.2 innings of work. There will be further tweaks, and there will surely be plenty of impressive performances. But if we’re going to see a brand new Soriano with the Blue Jays, I’m not expecting to see it until 2027.
Edwin Diaz might need a break
Diaz’s velocity has been back since his return from elbow surgery, but the results haven’t been any better. He struggled in both appearances this weekend, giving up three runs in 1.1 innings of work on three hits, two walks, and a homer. He has a 10.80 ERA and 2.50 WHIP for the season, and while I still expect the Dodgers to figure out how to get him right eventually, you do have to wonder if they won’t try to do it in some lower-stress situations. They still have a 7.5-game lead in the division, so it’s not like they’re playing with fire by keeping Diaz as the closer, but even a team running away with the division can only stomach so many ugly ninth innings before they make a chance. If you haven’t dropped Tanner Scott yet, make sure you hang on to him; I get the feeling we haven’t seen his last save for the Dodgers.
Esmerlyn Valdez has hit the wall
From the perspective of trying to figure out what Valdez’s long-term outlook looks like, the fact that a hit-by-pitch seems to have derailed his breakout complicates things. But from a more short-term perspective, I’m not sure the “why?” matters very much here. In 52 plate appearances since the hit-by-pitch on his left wrist on July 27, Valdez is just 3 for 37 with 19 strikeouts and zero home runs. He has still walked 14 times, though even that might not be a great sign, in and of itself, if he is growing increasingly passive due to soreness in the hand/wrist. That’s speculative, of course, but Valdez always felt like he was going to come crashing back down to earth at some point. Whether that’s because of the injury or just natural regression, it’s happening, and I think it’s reasonable to at least bench Valdez for this week. And if this slump continues, I won’t blame you if you just drop Valdez next week.
Extra Innings
I’m giving Zack Wheeler a mulligan
That’s two pretty alarming starts in three tries for Wheeler, who was tagged for four runs in 5.1 innings Friday, two starts after he left after just three innings amid a scary drop in velocity. Wheeler’s velocity was back in this one (as it was in a rain-shortened outing between the two), but he walked five, his most in a start since 2019. There was a little bit of controversy in this start, with the Blue Jays hitting coach David Popkins being ejected from the game after complaining that Wheeler was illegally coming off the pitching rubber while delivering the ball. That’s the kind of seemingly small thing that can throw a pitcher off – pitchers are notoriously fickle creatures of habit, so having that injected into your routine mid-start could throw you off. Am I making excuses? Sure, and I bet Wheeler wouldn’t even accept that as an excuse for his poor start. But you know what? Wheeler has earned the benefit of the doubt to excuse a poor start, so I’m not going to hold this one against him too much.
News and notes
Hunter Greene was diagnosed with a partial UCL tear in his right elbow and will undergo surgery this week. We don’t know exactly what kind of surgery he’s having yet, but he’ll miss a large portion of next season, at the very least, and if he needs Tommy John surgery, we may not see him until 2028. What a bummer.
Joe Ryan was officially placed on the IL with a left glute strain.
Griffin Jax was placed on the IL with right elbow discomfort. We don’t know how serious the injury is, but given the timetable you typically see even for relatively mild elbow issues, there’s a pretty good chance his Fantasy season is already over.
Kyle Harrison, who left his previous start with calf cramps, is listed as the probable pitcher Tuesday against the Padres.
Oneil Cruz started a rehab assignment on Friday. He’s been out since June 7 with a fractured left hand but could be back some time this week. And the Pirates could really use a boost.
Adley Rutschman kicked off his rehab assignment at Triple-A on Saturday. There is a chance he’s ready to make his Red Sox debut this week.
Blake Snell will make his return Tuesday against the Royals. He only got up to 73 pitches in his last rehab start, so I’d leave him on my bench (preferably stashed in an IL spot if I can) for this week before making the decision to start him.
Michael Soroka is expected to return Monday, which makes him a two-start pitcher against the Rockies and Braves. It’s not a bad set of matchups, but I’m wary of trusting him right off the IL when he only threw 57 pitches in his last rehab start.
Carlos Rodon made his first rehab start at Triple-A on Saturday, and he struggled while throwing just 2.2 innings. His velocity was down 2 mph on his four-seamer, which is a worrying sign coming off an elbow injury.
2.2 IP 3 H 3 ER 4 K to 2 BB but his velo was down quite a bit coming back from an elbow injury.
Kyle Stowers left Sunday with left hamstring discomfort.
Max Meyer, who is on the IL with a neck strain, will be re-evaluated this week.
Nick Pivetta had his rehab paused after leaving his first outing with elbow tightness. Even if it’s just a short pause, that probably pushes him back to September.
Joe Musgrove averaged 94.7 mph in his rehab outing Sunday, up from 93 mph in 2024. It’s been a bumpy road back from Tommy John surgery for Musgrove, but seeing the velocity up that much has me pretty interested in what he might be able to provide over the final month-plus when he is cleared to return. That probably won’t come until at least a few more rehab starts are under his belt, but he’s worth stashing at just a 27% roster rate.
George Springer has missed two straight with left shoulder tightness.
Cooper Pratt was placed on the IL with a right hamstring strain. Andrew Vaughn got a start at third base, which is an interesting wrinkle that could get one of the team’s better bats in the lineup more consistently. Something to watch this week.
Endy Rodriguez has missed three straight with left hip discomfort.
Vinnie Pasquantino could begin a rehab assignment on Tuesday. He’s been on the IL since July 29 with right wrist soreness.
Matt Chapman will undergo season-ending surgery to address a hernia.
The Padres signed Austin Hays after he was released by the White Sox.
