Let’s be clear: The New York Yankees still are in second place in the American League East, and there’s no date for Aaron Judge’s return from injury. Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Dodgers, even with the best record in baseball (61-36), are no guarantee to even get out of a loaded National League and are dealing with some nagging injuries of their own.
Still, this weekend’s Dodgers-Yankees series at Yankee Stadium could very well be a preview of the World Series.
Los Angeles is destroying opponents this season. Shohei Ohtani & Co. have outscored opponents by 149 runs (the largest run differential in the league), and their 11½-game lead in the NL West is the biggest of any division leader.
As for New York, the Bronx Bombers own the best run differential in the AL (+91). They’re just three games behind the Rays for the best record in the AL despite playing without Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Max Fried and Carlos Rodon.
On Friday, the teams begin a three-game series in New York, with the Dodgers (-110) and Yankees (-109) virtually even at sportsbooks.
While New York vs. Los Angeles is the marquee attraction on Friday, there are other options on a sporting landscape that includes a full MLB schedule. Below is a snapshot of what to watch and bet for Friday, July 17. All times Eastern.
MLB best bets, where to watch
Dodgers at Yankees
Time: 7:05 p.m. | Location: New York | TV: MLB Network | Stream: Fubo (Try for free)
SportsLine pick — Model: Yankees +1.5 (-175) | Expert: Yankees -102 (Matt Snyder)
In the series opener, New York’s Gerrit Cole (3-4, 4.04 ERA) will square off against Los Angeles’ Roki Sasaki (3-5, 5.33). The latter has struggled recently. Over his last five appearances, he is 0-2 with an 8.36 ERA. He also has been much worse on the road (6.25 ERA) than at home (4.60) this season. That bodes well for a Yankees team that has scored 26 runs over its last four games. “The Yankees offense started to wake back up before the [All-Star] break, and it spurred a four-game winning streak,” Snyder says. The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, agrees. It says New York has a 65.0% chance to cover and assigns a B grade to the Yankees run line.
White Sox at Blue Jays
Time: 7:15 p.m. | Location: Toronto | TV: Apple TV | Stream: Fubo (Try for free)
SportsLine pick — Model: White Sox +114
Chicago entered the All-Star break on a roll, sweeping a three-game series from the A’s and outscoring them 24-2 in the process. The White Sox will hand the ball to lefty Anthony Kay (6-4, 4.23), and southpaws have been Toronto’s Kryptonite this season. The Blue Jays have a .649 OPS against lefties, which is the second-worst in the league, ahead of only the Mariners (.631). The SportsLine Projection Model says Chicago has a 53.0% chance to win and gives a B grade to the White Sox money line (+114).
Tigers at Angels
Time: 9:38 p.m. | Location: Anaheim, Calif. | TV: MLB.TV | Stream: Fubo (Try for free)
SportsLine pick — Model: Angels +1.5 -175 | Expert: Tigers -104 (Matt Snyder)
Detroit is finally playing the way it had been projected to at the beginning of the season. The Tigers are 22-14 since the start of June and 9-3 over their last 12 games. On Friday, Detroit will see Los Angeles lefty Reid Detmers (3-6, 4.39), who has a 7.40 ERA in his last four starts. The Tigers will counter with Troy Melton (5-1, 1.82). “The road record is still bad, but they’ve won five of six on the road,” Snyder says. The SportsLine Projection Model doesn’t completely disagree. It says the Angels have a 68.0% chance to cover and assigns a B grade to the Los Angeles run line.
Giants at Mariners
Time: 10:10 p.m. | Location: Seattle | TV: MLB.TV | Stream: Fubo (Try for free)
SportsLine pick — Model: Over 7 (-121) | Expert: Mariners -146 (Matt Severance)
Seattle has a distinct pitching advantage in the first game of this three-game series. Mariners starter Bryce Miller (4-3, 2.18) has a 0.40 ERA in four home starts this season. Meanwhile, San Francisco starter Landen Roupp (6-8, 4.27) is 1-7 with a 5.25 ERA since the beginning of May. The Giants also are just 19-30 on the road this season. “[This is a] pretty fair price on the Mariners — not that they are that great, but the Giants are garbage,” Severance says. Meanwhile, the SportsLine Projection Model says there’s a 58.1% chance the teams combine for eight runs or more and gives a B grade to Over 7 runs (-121).
Looking ahead
England vs. France
Time: 5 p.m. Saturday | Location: Miami | TV: FOX/Telemundo | Stream: Fubo (Try for free)
SportsLine pick — Expert: France -0.5 -115 (Brad Thomas)
Two teams reeling from their losses in the World Cup semifinals will square off in the third-place game when France and England battle in South Florida. France’s Kylian Mbappe still has much to play for. He’s currently tied with Argentina‘s Lionel Messi in the Golden Boot race, with eight goals. (Messi has four assists to Mbappe’s three.) However Thomas notes that England are playing for nothing but pride. “The third place match always comes down to motivation, and it’s hard to see England bouncing back after such a gut-wrenching loss to Argentina,” he says. He adds, “If this turns into a battle of depth, France has the edge, especially with Mbappe leading the way.”
