Too-early NBA Power Rankings: Why Spurs have edge over Knicks, Cavaliers and Heat both really need LeBron

1. San Antonio Spurs

The Spurs pulled a little rabbit out of the hat against OKC. The Thunder felt, albeit by a thin margin, like the better team for most of that series.

But moving forward the Spurs are going to get an even better version of Victor Wembanyama (needs to establish a go-to scoring zone), Stephon Castle and especially Dylan Harper, who didn’t really break out until the playoffs.

Love bringing Julian Champagnie back. That spacing is huge, and for all the talk of trading De’Aaron Fox, for now he’s a luxury the Spurs can afford while their three best and aforementioned players are still on rookie contracts.

Injuries will happen. Having three awesome guards is not a bad thing. Fox was an All-Star last season. He had a tough Finals, no doubt. The Spurs are smart not to panic and think they don’t need him because of Harper’s emergence. Depth wins in today’s NBA. And Fox is still, until proven otherwise, one of the more reliable sources of half-court offense in San Antonio.

The bottom line is this: The Spurs just beat OKC in a conference finals Game 7 on the road, then held the lead against the Knicks in the Finals for over 72% of the minutes played when at this time last summer it would’ve been considered a success if they had simply qualified for a playoff spot.

2. New York Knicks

Before the Jaylen Brown trade, the Knicks weren’t even listed as the Eastern Conference favorite heading into next season. That’s a joke.

What more does this team have to do? New York just won 13 straight playoff games and finished on a 15-1 run after going down 2-1 to Atlanta in the first round.

Are we really making that much of the Mitchell Robinson loss? Because everyone else is back, and Andre Drummond, though not the defender that Robinson is, is going to do a lot of the same things Robinson did as a rebounder while serving as an actual functional free-throw shooter.

If there’s a player in the game right now that you would rather have with a big game on the line than Jalen Brunson, you’re going to have a hard time explaining yourself. The whole “Karl-Anthony Towns is soft” stuff is dead. He was probably New York’s second-best player throughout the postseason and has settled into a supportive superstar role that is a delicate needle to thread.

All the wings. All the defense and shooting and versatility. All the chemistry and depth that Mike Brown actually uses. It’s all back, and you can’t overstate the power of a team that has now proved itself that all these things it believes in, and has believed in, actually work at the highest level.

The Knicks will go into every game next season knowing they are the best team on the floor. Knowing they can dig out of any hole. Their level of confidence is through the roof, as it should be. That is a superpower.

Still, I’m putting the Spurs slightly above the Knicks because, as I just alluded to, they won 72% of the minutes in that series and the mistakes they made to close games should be learning moments for a team that still has more room to improve than New York, or any other team for that matter. It’s close though. The Knicks and their fans have every right to believe they should be considered the top dog until someone knocks them off. I won’t argue with that assertion. 

3. Oklahoma City Thunder

OKC has every right to believe it would’ve beaten San Antonio had even one of Jalen Williams or Ajay Mitchell been healthy, let alone both of them.

Even without either of those guys on the floor, if Chet Holmgren would’ve put up an even passable level of fight against Victor Wembanyama that series could have, and likely would have, gone OKC’s way. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander can and probably will be more efficient if they play the Spurs again next May.

All of which is to say, if you believe the Thunder are still the best team in the West, or the league for that matter, under optimal conditions, you won’t get a strong argument from me.

Personally, I’m accounting for a leap from all three of San Antonio’s best players, whereas OKC feels closer to its finished product. The losses of Isaiah Joe and Andrew Wiggins (even if he’d fallen out of the playoff rotation) are real. Cason Wallace is still rising. Let’s see how much impact the rookies Aday Mara and Bennett Stirtz can have. Maybe Stirtz replaces Joe’s bench shooting. Mara gives them huge depth in the front court with Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein.

Ultimately, Holmgren is the X-factor here. He turned in a great season, developing as a self-creator and he’s still arguably the best rim protector this side of Wemby. That’s his only nemesis. If he closes the gap on Wembanyama in a heads-up series, that could swing the pendulum back to OKC. It will be the single biggest storyline if those two meet again in the postseason. 

4. Indiana Pacers

This might not happen right away. Tyrese Haliburton may need some time to hit his full game groove. But Indiana returns largely the same team that took OKC to Game 7 of the Finals and very well could’ve won the whole thing had Haliburton not blown out his Achilles.

The major loss from that Finals team two years ago, of course, was Myles Turner. But he’s been replaced by an even better big man in Ivica Zubac — though it will be interesting to see how the change in center spacing affects Indiana. Non-shooting centers are their own kind of challenge these days, no matter how good they are down low on both ends.

But the Pacers are still going to get up and down. Kelly Oubre Jr. comes aboard and will get all kinds of buckets by just running the floor. The depth, wing force, defense and point guard play should be elite.

This is a bet on Tyrese Haliburton. Few point guards create as lush an offensive environment as he does. Andrew Nembhard and Aaron Nesmith will be back to awesome on both ends. Pascal Siakam could’ve been All-NBA last year if not for the 65-game rule. This team is loaded and reenergized at the gap year. Again, it may take a minute. But come go time, Indiana should be up near the front of the Eastern pack.

5. Toronto Raptors

Everything you are about to read is based on the assumption that the Kawhi Leonard trade, which isn’t complete yet as Toronto is waiting for the league to announce a decision on its investigation into Leonard and the Clippers and whether any salary-cap circumvention occurred, will end up going through, and Leonard will indeed be a Raptor once again.

With the assumption, here’s a stat for you: The Raptors were 10 points worse per 100 possessions in relation to their opponent last season when Brandon Ingram was on the floor, per Cleaning the Glass, and he was miserable in the playoffs. He was a wonky fit as a methodical self-scorer on a team that wants to play fast and free.

Now they flip Ingram out for Leonard. That’s quite an exchange for a team that won 46 games a year ago and took the Cavs to seven games in the playoffs. 

Leonard is coming off the healthiest and arguably best regular season of his career. We’re talking about just under 28-6-4 on almost 50-40-90 shooting over 65 games. MVP-type stuff. He’ll have to do it again for the Raptors to become contenders. The health holding up is obviously a fingers-crossed situation.

But if it does, everything slots into place for a a Toronto team that can defend and run like crazy. All they were missing was a scorer who can create consistent half-court offense on his own. Ingram fit that profile but just wasn’t good enough at it. Scottie Barnes was overtasked as a No. 1 option. Leonard is perfect. He can be the Michael Jordan to Barnes’ Scottie Pippen. Keeping RJ Barrett out of the trade with the Clippers was big.

In short, the Raptors just paired an elite scorer with an elite defense and an All-NBA No. 2 with a beautiful blend of youth and experience, a ton of depth and palpable team chemistry. Vibes, assuming the trade goes through, will be high in Toronto. They should be.

6. Minnesota Timberwolves

It’s time to find out if LaMelo Ball is not just a winning player, but a guy who can survive and thrive against playoff physicality.

Running around shooting one-legged 3s probably isn’t going to play in a second-round series with Stephon Castle or one of OKC’s perimeter demons manhandling you as the refs sit back and say, “Welcome to the NBA.”

Because, for all intents and purposes, Ball hasn’t been playing in the real NBA thus far in his career. He’s been playing in his own Broadway show. Pure entertainment. No real stakes other than giving the audience their money’s worth.

Now, the Hornets finally put a nice team around him last season, and he was very good in leading what was one of the better teams in the league after the turn of the calendar. Ball made the Hornets go. Look at the on/off splits. The Wolves need him to do a lot of the same things, but now he doesn’t have to be the best player. He’s arguably the fourth-best player on the team.

Ball will have a ton of defensive infrastructure around him, and with few point guards, or with all the quality looks he creates for teammates with his pace and passing, Anthony Edwards should feast on catch-and-shoots and be relieved of some of the initiation duties that left him to operate out of so many traps and double teams in last year’s playoffs.

I think the fit is great. Minnesota needs juice, pace, more offense around Edwards, and with the defense that’s in place in Minnesota, I’m hoping Ball can not just be hidden on that end but inspired to use his size and instincts to actually become impactful in his own right now that he doesn’t have to carry such a heavy offensive load.

If somehow the Wolves were to land LeBron, we’d be talking about a major contender. If Ball pans out. That is the whole question with this team. I’m a believer in this enviorment with this kind of support. 

7. Boston Celtics

With the Jaylen Brown saga behind them, the Celtics are in a position to be a better team than the one that won 56 games and finished as the East’s No. 2 seed last season.

This isn’t a knock on Brown, to be clear. I’m not buying into the on/off split stuff that somehow the Celtics are better without one of the 20-ish best players in the league. This was a money thing. He isn’t quite good enough to take up 35% of your cap, especially when Jayson Tatum is taking another 35%.

It’s true that Paul George makes just as much as Brown, but George is on a shorter deal. He could be traded after this season as an expiring deal. Hell, maybe he’ll be traded before or during this upcoming season.

But assuming he isn’t, he’s a much better shooter than Brown, particularly off the catch, and is a great fit in Boston’s drive-and-kick offense who will take up far less usage than Brown, leaving more for Tatum and Payton Pritchard, a star waiting to pop.

On top of that, the Celtics added Mitchell Robinson. They’re already a tough team to beat at the possession game with all their offensive rebounds and low turnover rate. Robinson is maybe the best offensive rebounder ever, and George won’t turn it over at the rate Brown did.

Look at it like this: Tatum, for all intents and purposes, didn’t play last season. So he’s a new addition to last year’s team, and he’s an upgrade from Brown. Robinson is an upgrade from Nikola Vučević. And George is an upgrade from Anfernee Simons.

The Celtics got better. Now, so did the Eastern Conference as a whole, and 56 wins is a hell of a bar to clear. Not having a stretch big is a big hole in today’s game (Luka Garza becomes third on the depth chart, and he’s low volume anyway).

Still, if you’re thinking Brad Stevens just made the dumbest trade this side of Nico Harrison by swapping Brown for George (on the court), you’re wrong. Brown didn’t have much of a market because every other team has access to the same numbers Boston does. He’s not good enough to take up as much of your salary space as he does. Now that is Philly’s problem.

The Celtics will be fine, and perhaps they’re not done. They are about $8 million under their hard cap with a $27 million trade exception to work with. They can trade Sam Hauser, just as an example, and take back around an $18M player. Trust in Brad Stevens. He knows what he’s doing.

8. Philadelphia 76ers

On sheer top-end talent, the Sixers are a 1A title contender. At full health, there aren’t many Big 4s better than Tyrese Maxey, V.J. Edgecombe, Jaylen Brown and Joel Embiid.

The fit here is a different story. Brown’s 36.2% usage rate last season was the second-highest in the league and the highest in Celtics history.

Stephen Curry has never had the ball that much. Neither has Kevin Durant. That’s a number reserved for James Harden in Houston, Allen Iverson with nobody to pass to and Kobe Bryant in his all-time ball-hog years.

And Brown stated it was his favorite season. Suffice it to say, he likes having the ball.

But Maxey and Embiid obviously need the ball, too. There’s a Kumbaya version of this on paper where everyone sacrifices and the ball moves and Maxey really leans into the off-ball stuff he has shown flashes of being really effective at, but imagining that playing out on the court, at least right away, is more difficult.

Maxey should be the No. 1 ball-handler, but Brown clearly will want it in his hands a lot, too. Embiid slows everything down when they do his elbow face-up thing. I fear some diminishing returns on all this talent in what could turn into more of a your-turn-my-turn operation.

Still, the top four is overwhelmingly talented. Dean Wade as your fifth plays. And there is some depth here. Anfernee Simons would’ve gotten more shots in Miami, but and Dominick Barlow make the start of a bench.

If LeBron were to come to Phillly, that would be another guy who needs the ball. None of these guys are knockdown shooters except Maxey, and you don’t want him just spotting up.

Still, at that point you would just be riding pure talent. LeBron, Embiid, Maxey, Brown and Edgecombe would be a crazy top five.

Even without LeBron you could argue the Sixers should be higher on the talent they already have. It’s just a fit question, and obviously there’s no, way you can expect Embiid to stay healthy. We’ll see where that stands come playoff time. 

9. Los Angeles Lakers

It’s fair to question the price the Lakers paid for Walker Kessler. The Jazz played that situation perfectly, forcing L.A. to give up two future firsts and two future swaps. That was basically all the capital the Lakers had to keep adding to their roster, notably on the wing, where they are way too thin.

They may still get Jonathan Kuminga in an upside play, but it might well cost them their lone remaining draft asset (2032 swap), as has been stated the price Atlanta would want in a sign-and-trade for Jarred Vanderbilt.

LeBron is gone. So are Marcus Smart, Luke Kennard and Rui Hachimura. That’s a lot of shooting out the door for a team that was already in the bottom 10 in 3-pointers made per game.

But let’s look at the upside of this team. First, Luka gets a great lob partner/rim protector to work with in Kessler, and I like the secondary/bench scoring they added in Quentin Grimes and Collin Sexton. Grimes will do his best to fill in for Hachimura. Kuminga could be on his way to deepening the wing rotation. This is far from a perfect team. The drop off from Kessler to Kevon Looney is huge in those bench minutes (let alone if Kessler gets hurt). There’s isn’t much defense on the perimeter (who’s going to stay in front of ball-handlers?). Shooting is an even bigger problem than it was last season.

But Luka Dončić is so great that he can cover for a lot of this stuff on his own. He and Reaves have been extraordinary as the 1-2 punch (+8.3 without LeBron last season, per CTG) and that duo is anchored with Kessler instead of Ayton.

Having the Lakers this high is a bet on Luka, first and foremost. Kessler is a big pickup, even if they paid too much in the long term. Given the wing stables of San Antonio and Oklahoma City, I don’t think there’s any way the Lakers can win the West barring something totally wonky happening. But regular-season wise, this is a top-10 team.

10. Denver Nuggets

It feels wrong to drop the Nuggets from the Class A contenders with Nikola Jokić still the best player in the world. But this does feel like the Denver flight is on its descent.

There’s still the “Aaron Gordon wasn’t healthy” crutch to lean on if you want it. How many centers are going to defend Jokić in a playoff series the way Rudy Gobert did? Don’t read too much into a first-round exit last year, but don’t dismiss it, either.

We have to see what comes of Peyton Watson, who is going to cost more than the Nuggets have to spend under the second apron right now. Go over that second apron to sign Watson and a team that was a first-round bounce last year is going to cost north of $400 million with taxes.

The Nuggets have called about LeBron James, but who hasn’t? They almost certainly aren’t getting him.

Ultimately, nobody is going to overlook the Nuggets at full strength, but they probably aren’t on the top shelf of contenders anymore.

11. Miami Heat

When the Heat are getting stops and running in transition, they’ll be a major problem. But as constructed, I can’t put them among the elite teams because of the half-court offensive issues.

Erik Spoelstra will find ways to make it work, but with a non-shooting in Bam Adebayo and Giannis Antetokounmpo and a non-shooting point guard in Davion Mitchell, the spacing is going to be very cramped and there are no traditional creators in there.

Yes, I know Bam has stretched his shooting to 3 but defenses will still be happy to let him fire away. Same with Mitchell even though his percentages look fine at low volume. The loss of Norman Powell is huge.

Still, the Heat will be tough on defense and running alone. They’ll shoot as many 3s around Bam and Giannis as they can. LeBron would add another major talent, obviously, and help the spacing some, but like Giannis he would find driving lanes pretty packed as well. 

12. Cleveland Cavaliers

On one hand, the Cavs were a conference finals team a year ago and bring everyone back. So why the relatively low ranking?

Because on the other hand, the Cavs needed seven games to get past Toronto in the first round and now the Raptors have Kawhi Leonard (we think). They play that series again, Cleveland is one and done.

Anyway, Cleveland’s roster is more collectively talented than Miami’s, but I would still take the Heat in a playoff series as both are currently constructed. James Harden teams are simply not to be feared at the highest levels, even when he’s not the best player.

Now, if the Cavs get LeBron, which they’re sounding like the favorite to do, they move up in these rankings. But it’s important to note that it still won’t be a perfect setup.

On some level, Donovan Mitchell, LeBron and Harden need the ball to be their best. LeBron showed he can play off ball when he was with Luka and Austin Reaves, but as mentioned those trios weren’t nearly as good as when Luka and Reaves were alone for a reason. You’re getting a scaled-down LeBron by overdoing redundant skillsets. That could very well happen to him again in Cleveland, though it’s obviously a good problem to have if only to stagger lineups with two of the three playing most of the minutes before all three have to co-exist in money time.

When that happens, Harden is a nothing off-ball. Evan Mobley could end up pretty marginalized. Max Strus might be on his way out to make room for LeBron. Other than Sam Merrill, you’d have a bunch of league-average 3-point shooters who have to shoot a lot of 3s.

Mitchell, Harden and LeBron are all downhill players. Mitchell is the biggest pull-up threat. I’m not making it a big secret here that I just question the fit and role redundancy. But the talent is there, no question. I’m not looking at this as a top-10 team until I see how the LeBron sweepstakes plays out. 

13. Detroit Pistons

Detroit still hasn’t signed Jalen Duren, and I hate that they didn’t land Norman Powell, who would’ve been a perfect pickup as an elite shooter and real secondary scorer for Cade Cunningham.

On the margins, the Pistons have quietly done some decent work this summer. They just expanded the deal that sent Isaiah Stewart to Memphis by also sending Marcus Sasser to Dallas and adding Gary Harris and Taurean Prince. Mostly, this trims some money under the first-apron hard cap the Pistons are now bound by, leaving ample room for a Duren deal and possibly more.

Until then, Isaiah Joe adds much-needed shooting. If you lost track of John Collins after he left Atlanta, you probably don’t realize he has rediscovered his 3-point shot to the tune of a plus-40% over the last two seasons and he’s lights out from the corner.

As it stands, Detroit is down Tobias Harris, Stewart, Sasser and Caris LeVert, up Joe, Collins, Prince and Harris, and still without its second All-Star in Duren under contract.

The good news is the Pistons are close to $50M under the tax line and some $56M under their hard cap, meaning they have more than enough room to sign Duren or bring back some money in a potential Duren sign-and-trade.

There are potentially ways to a Trey Murphy III deal if they want. Would the Bucks move Tyler Herro? Could a home-run move for Michael Porter Jr. still happen? By way of the aforementioned expanded trade, the Pistons have created two trade exemptions — one for $15 million and one for $5.2 million. So they have TPEs and a lot of room under their hard cap. They have all their draft picks available for trade. It feels like something could still be cooking.

But until something actually happens, I’m still dubious of this team without a real second offensive threat. Operating on the assumption that they get Duren back, they still have the bones of the team that got them to 60 wins last season and some good depth, but a lot of other teams in the East got significantly better. So if the Pistons just stay the same, they effectively got worse. Stay tuned to this team over the next couple weeks. 

14. Houston Rockets

Only in a league this deep could a team a talented as the Rockets barely rank in the top half of teams.

Yes, I saw the same Houston disaster as last season wore on as you did. But what did everyone say about that team? They need a point guard.

Good news! Fred VanVleet is coming back. They have a point guard now. And another good one for the second unit in Marcus Smart.

Is that enough to unlock all the talent on this team? To a degree, I believe so. The half-court offense was so lazy and unorganized as last season went on. It should look a lot different with FVV/Smart at the helm.

Plus, Steven Adams should be back, and with it a lot of the offensive rebounding that bails Houston out of a lot of bad possessions.

Kevin Durant is starting to feel like a common denominator on teams that underwhelm. Brooklyn wasn’t hit fault, but Phoenix and Houston have now looked very similar with Durant on board in terms of their reliance on Durant’s contested shot making.

That doesn’t hold up in big picture. For the Rockets to rise, Alperen Sengun needs to play like a consistent All-Star, which I still absolutely believe he is. Reed Sheppard needs to take a leap. Durant can’t decline, which is going to happen sooner or later.

But I’m still a relative Rockets believer. I don’t put them in the top-10 of the league overall, but they have the talent to be there and they have the resources to get even better at the deadline.

15. Portland Trail Blazers

The Ja Morant move feels like it could jam things up. He has to have the ball to be the best version of himself, or the best version he’s still capable of being with less rim pressure and the same shaky shot, but taking Damian Lillard off the ball is the same thing Milwaukee tried to do and that never really worked.

Plus, that’s a terrible defensive backcourt on a team that cut its teeth last year playing defense. So what, Jrue Holiday is going to come off the bench? I’m curious to see how long that lasts. Morant could be moved to the bench, or Holiday could be traded.

What about Scott Henderson? He was just starting to come around last year. He had some real playoff moments. He’s an improved shooter and decision maker, but does he want to spend the season preceding his free agent summer fighting for 15 minutes a game? And what about Shaedon Sharpe? He signed a $90 million contract, and when his shot is going, he’s a lethally smooth scorer. The backcourt is jammed, to say the least, and I’m not sure Morant starting alongside Lillard was the way to go.

Still, you can’t argue with the talent on this roster. We’ve gotten this far and haven’t even talked about the best player on the team, Deni Advija (another guy who thrives with the ball in his hand as a forceful straight-line driver). I think Lillard could be in for a huge season, and if Morant pops and the defense is able to stay strong with Donovan Clingan, Tamari Camara and Holiday, this is a scary team.

Plus, they have a lot of capital to attach to a Holiday, Henderson or Sharpe if they want to add someone notable at the deadline. Micah Nori has to figure out how to make all these pieces fit, but he definitely has real pieces.

16. Utah Jazz

I’m tempted to have Utah higher, maybe even a lot higher, on this list. But I question the defense with a Keyonte George-Darryn Peterson backcourt without Walker Kessler.

Yes, the Jazz have Jaren Jackson Jr. as a rim protector and and a lot of general defensive length. That’s why I’m tempted to have them as a top-six contender in the West. It goes without saying that there is a ton of offensive firepower here.

Utah was in a lot of games last season until it decided to stop competing, and that paid off by getting Peterson at No. 2 overall. If Peterson pops right away, Utah could be climbing a lot higher on this list by Christmas. 

17. Atlanta Hawks

The Hawks bring back the core of the team that took a 2-1 first-round series lead on the Knicks, with a couple of potentially highly impactful additions.

The first one is Aaron Wiggins, who fell out of Oklahoma City’s playoff rotation only because of the obscene perimeter depth. Wiggins is a player. That’s a big pickup for a Hawks team that continues to follow the heavy two-way wing blueprint that won the Celtics, Thunder and Knicks the last three NBA titles.

The second big addition is No. 8 overall pick Kingston Flemings, a lightning-fast athlete who doesn’t play in a hurry. That’s a powerful combination. Flemings should spark Atlanta in transition, and with his passing and ability to get into the paint and to the rim. He changes pace well, and has a lot of wiggle to go with his straight-line speed. And in keeping with the identity Atlanta is starting to build, he’s a gritty, quick, in-your-face defender cut from the University of Houston cloth.

Suddenly, you look at this two-way wing stable of Jalen Johnson, Dyson Daniels, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Wiggins and Zacharrie Risacher with Onyeka Okongwu in the middle and a guy like Flemings at the point, and that’s a lot of defense.

Now you have the infrastructure to support CJ McCollum just looking to score and create off the bounce, and Johnson can continue to grow as an All-Star. This is another very talented team that could wind up a lot higher on this list as the season goes on. 

18. Orlando Magic

The Magic are betting on better health than last season, and hopefully a lot of collective internal growth with their only new pickup of note being Nikola Vučević to compete for backup center minutes with Goga Bitadzi.

The same problems exist. Lack of shooting, and really, scoring in general. Paolo Banchero still isn’t efficient enough to be a go-to guy, and his fit with Franz Wagner, given that neither is a consistent shooter, is still clunky.

Still, this team won 45 games a year ago despite a ton of core injuries and took the Pistons to seven games. After taking a 3-1 lead, Orlando lost the next three games, all of which Wagner missed.

So Orlando can tell itself, again, that if it had been healthy, even with all the offensive issues, it would’ve beaten a 60-win team and made at least the second round. It’s not wrong. This was a team many people predicted to finish as a top-three seed last season. Maybe it just happens a year later.

19. Washington Wizards

Let’s assume they keep Anthony Davis for the moment. That’s an opening night lineup of Trae Young, No. 1 overall pick AJ Dybantsa, Kyshawn George, Davis and Alex Sarr.

First off, that’s a huge lineup outside of Young, and there’s a lot of talent coming off the bench in Bilal Coulibaly, Tre Johnson, Will Riley, Bub Carrington and the recently acquired Deandre Ayton.

Plus, the Wizards brough back Khris Middleton in an expanded six-team deal that, through cap machinations we don’t need to get into, left them with $11M to spend on an MLE while still staying under the tax line. So they might not be done.

Listen, signing Young to a $212 million deal when he was basically salary dumped six months ago is a gross overpay, and I fear that signing Davis to a big multi-year extension on top of it will end pretty badly.

But for right now, under optimal conditions, yeah, the Wizards have a team that can really compete on both ends of the floor. Is it enough defensive infrastructure to compensate for Young? We’ll see. The East is suddenly pretty stacked. The Wizards feel like a play-in team at this moment, and I have zero confidence that Davis will stay even halfway healthy.

20. Charlotte Hornets

Say what you want, but LaMelo Ball made this team go. That was a tough call for the Hornets to proactively trade Ball after such a successful second half of the season. It would’ve been way easier to just run it back with a young core that had created real energy in the city.

Instead, the Hornets get Naz Reid back for Ball and turn to Coby White at the point. This now team now belongs to Brandon Miller and Kon Kneuppel. Let’s see how they fare without the creation of Ball.

Miles Bridges is out. He was a consistent source of offense for them, but the Hornets bring back elite shooting in Grayson Allen and Royce O’Neale, though there are rumblings that O’Neale could be moved again as part of an expanded Ball/Reid trade. Though they flamed out in the play-in, Charlotte was genuinely one of the best teams in the league with the most dominant starting lineup over a long sample last year. So now the question is simple: How much of that is sustainable without Ball?

21. Golden State Warriors

When Draymond Green declined his $27.7 million player option for next season, it seemed like the precursor to LeBron James bringing his talents to the Bay. That hasn’t happened, and it’s looking less and less likely that it will.

Maybe Golden State gets desperate and throws a huge offer at Washington for an effective Anthony Davis/LeBron package deal, but I doubt it.

Until then, the Warriors basically haven’t done anything this summer except add No. 11 overall pick Yaxel Lendeborg, whom everyone is pretty excited about, to be fair. But that’s not going to change the fortunes of a team that went 37-45 last season. Sure, that was because of injuries, but it’s the same old roster coming back.

Actually, they lost Quinten Post. That shouldn’t be a huge loss, but when you don’t make any other moves it is.

The Warriors are ancient in NBA years. They have waited for years on a blockbuster like Giannis at the expense of making smaller, smarter additions to the support staff, and now they’ve struck out on Giannis and have bet their whole summer on LeBron.

If LeBron doesn’t come, this team cannot compete for real. They’re too small and old. They’re only this high because Curry remains near the peak of his powers, but he’s been breaking down physically, too. LeBron is seeing these same flaws. Golden State is just hoping the allure of playing with Curry is enough for The King to overlook them. 

22. Phoenix Suns

Phoenix swapped out Grayson Allen and Royce O’Neal for Miles Bridges, who brings a lot more athletic juice and rim pressure. Re-signing Collin Gillespie and Jordan Goodwin on affordable deals was smart. That’s the blueprint these days. A lot of good players on balanced contracts.

Luke Kennard can replace at least some of the shooting lost with Allen and O’Neale, but he’s not going to provide the volume of either, and he’s nowhere hear the scorer that Allen is.

Phoenix was one of the league’s better stories last season. Dillon Brooks played incredibly well. Jalen Green needs to shoot a lot better, but there’s no denying the scoring talent. Devin Booker might need to tick back up his 3-point volume after the loss of Allen and O’Neale. 

23. Dallas Mavericks

It’s a new day in Dallas, where Masai Ujiri has taken over the front office and Dusty May has replaced Jason Kidd on the sideline. May has a lot to work with. Kyrie Irving is back, and Cooper Flagg WILL make All-NBA this season.

In a league where everyone is looking for wings, the Mavericks, for now, have P.J. Washington and Naji Marshall at the front of their stable, but we’ll see if trades are in the works for one or both of those guys.

Daniel Gafford could be on his way out, but again, for now the Mavericks have him, Dereck Lively III and the recently acquired Santi Aldama at center. No. 9 overall pick Morez Johnson Jr., who played for May at Michigan, is a beast.

The Mavericks feel like they could soon dismantle some of, if not a lot of, this roster. It’s a team that could compete for a play-in berth depending on the health of Lively and how much Johnson can help right away. 

24. New Orleans Pelicans

Another team that is a good standard by which to judge the amazing overall talent in today’s NBA. Look at New Orleans’ roster and try to wrap your head around it being one of the worst teams in the league.

Zion Williamson. Trey Murphy III. Dejounte Murray. Derik Queen. Jeremiah Fears. Herb Jones. Jordan Poole.

At full health and playing to full potential, that is not the top-seven rotation of a bad team.

At the same time, New Orleans isn’t going to compete for anything real, and you wonder how long it will be before someone gives them the three draft picks they reportedly want for Murphy. And how long is Zion Williamson for this team? He quietly played in 62 games last year and averaged 21 and 6 on 60% shooting. His value might never be higher, and he’s probably not a long-term fit next to Queen.

Keeping these guys does make sense from the standpoint of maximizing lottery odds in the new structure that no longer rewards finishing as a bottom-three team. You want to win just enough to finish somewhere between the fourth- and 10th-worst record.

As constructed, New Orleans feels pretty primed to do exactly that. 

25. Los Angeles Clippers

As we did with the Raptors, we’re going to assume this Kawhi trade goes through and the Clippers are moving forward with Brandon Ingram and Gradey Dick in his place.

Bennedict Mathurin, a restricted free agent after the Clips tendered his qualifying offer, hasn’t been signed yet. We’re waiting to see if the Clips pull off a Peyton Watson sign-and-trade.

The Clippers have done well to get out of the Kawhi, Paul George and James Harden business as they have. They replenished their draft chest about as effectively as anyone could’ve hoped (we’ll see how potential penalties from the Kawhi investigation affect this), and they got back Darius Garland and Ingram as ready-made starters to lead a team right into the sweetest spot of the new draft lottery structure.

Meanwhile, L.A. got point guard Keaton Wagler in the draft, and he is now on the developmental clock with Garland in front of him and without the stress of competitive stakes. 

26. Chicago Bulls

To land a prospect as universally touted as Caleb Wilson at No. 4 overall is Chicago’s big win this summer. A lot of folks are calling Dailyn Swain a steal at No. 15 in the draft.

The Bulls are once again perfectly constructed to be bad but not terrible, which should actually work in their favor now with the aforementioned changes to the draft lottery.

Now it’s in Chicago’s, and everyone’s, best interest to finish just outside the Play-In Tournament (or even in the 9-10 game) but not as low as the bottom three.

Hence the pickups of Norman Powell and Nic Calxton to go with Josh Giddey and Matas Buzelis in the starting five. That’s a 30-win team if you’ve ever seen one. 

27. Memphis Grizzlies

Memphis is finally out of the Ja Morant business. They had to take on the last two years and $71 million of Jerami Grant’s salary, but they didn’t have to give up a draft pick. So they’re still loaded with those.

Meanwhile, they land Cam Boozer, who would’ve been the No.1 pick in some drafts, at No. 3 overall. That’s a major win.

Memphis took part in the expanded six-team trade that, for them, started with acquiring Isaiah Stewart from Detroit. They lose Santi Aldama to Dallas, but they get D’Angelo Russell!

Zach Edey, Boozer, Stewart and Quentin Post are a pretty formidable front. Ty Jerome and Scottie Pippen at the point. Cam Spencer a lights-out shooter. Cedric Coward and Jaylen Wells leading the wing unit.

There are a lot of exciting developmental cases in there, and time to let the development happen with a lot of draft capital at Memphis’ disposal.

The Grizzlies won’t be good this season, but they have turned a bleak situation into a pretty promising one, starting with the draft hauls they got for Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr. and continuing with the drafting of Boozer. 

28. Sacramento Kings

The Kings hope Darius Acuff Jr. is the future. The present looks as bleak as it normally does for a Sacramento franchise that has made just one playoff appearance in the last 20 years.

We all knew Zach LaVine would grab his $49 million player option. Domantas Sabonis is still on the roster. Malik Monk. Keegan Murray. De’Andre Hunter. Precious Achiuwa. If none of these names inspire you, you’re not alone. This defense with Acuff out front and Sabonis in back could be atrocious. 

29. Brooklyn Nets

The Nets traded for Julius Randle, but that deal hasn’t been made official yet. is Brooklyn just keeping as much cap space open as possible to see if anyone comes calling to dump salary?

Are they going to renegotiate Michael Porter Jr.’s deal? Nic Claxton is out. Keon Ellis and Moe Wagner are in.

Could the Nets trade MPJ and look to sign Peyton Watson? Whatever they do, they are not going to be a good team this season. But they’re aiming, like everyone else, to also not be in the bottom three.

30. Milwaukee Bucks

Milwaukee is the recent cautionary tale for all teams unwilling to get ahead of an inevitable superstar trade. If it’s going to happen, do it early.

By waiting, the Bucks got back just a so-so package from Miami for Giannis Antetokounmpo. And they’re still paying Myles Turner, who was brought aboard specifically to serve the delusional dream of keeping Giannis, and Damian Lillard, who now plays for the Blazers largely on Milwaukee’s dime.

We’ll see if Milwaukee keeps Tyler Herro. Again, the lottery reform changes everything. Nobody wants to bottom out. They just want to be a regular bad team.

With names like Jaime Jacquez Jr., Turner, Herro, rookies Nate Ament and Brayden Burries (their big offseason scores, but obviously not to make a huge difference this year), Kasparas Jakucionis, Caris LeVert and Kyle Kuzma, Milwaukee can only hope to be a regular bad team.