khamzat-chimaev-ufc
Imagn Images

UFC heads to Newark, N.J., this week, highlighted by a middleweight title bout between defending champion and unbeaten Khamzat Chimaev and third-ranked Sean Strickland. Chimaev (15-0) is looking to win his 10th fight since joining UFC in July 2020, while Strickland (30-7) is looking to extend his winning streak to two. The main card begins at 9 p.m. ET on Paramount+ from Prudential Center in Newark. The recent UFC 328 odds list Chimaev the -520 favorite (risk $520 to win $100), while Strickland comes back at +390.

The co-main event for UFC 328 is a flyweight title bout between Joshua Van and Tatsuro Taira. With an 18-1 record, Taira is the -155 favorite (risk $155 to win $100) to utilize in UFC bets. The preliminary card features four fights, with four early prelims. Before locking in any UFC 328 picks, make sure you see the UFC 328 predictions and betting advice from Mike McClure’s proven computer model.

Paramount+ is the only place to stream EVERY UFC numbered event and UFC Fight Night live, at no additional cost. A subscription also gives you access to other sports content, including the UEFA Champions League, college basketball, the NFL and Big Ten on CBS and countless movies and shows. Plans start at just $8.99 per month, so sign up right here.  

Visit our DraftKings promo code review to see their recent offers and get started.

McClure’s UFC model runs 10,000 simulations for every fight. Each simulation plays out the fight round-by-round, accounting for dynamic win probability that shifts based on fighter attributes, round-by-round finish calculations with KO/submission timing, accumulating damage factors that increase finish likelihood in later rounds and fighter-specific finishing tendencies such as power punchers vs grapplers vs decision fighters.

The model backtested against more than 500 fights from 2023-25 and showed more than 18 units of profit — a 6.1% ROI on UFC betting. It also got off to a hot start for the new era of UFC on Paramount+, hitting both Justin Gaethe to win outright (+195) and the Over in total rounds in the main event at UFC 324.

Now, the model has analyzed Chimaev vs. Strickland from every angle and revealed its top betting picks and best bets. Head to SportsLine to see them. 

Chimaev vs. Strickland preview 

Chimaev, 32, is No. 3 in the UFC men’s pound-for-pound rankings. He has been dominant since turning pro in 2018, winning each of his 15 bouts. He has multiple skills and can win on the feet or on the mat. Chimaev has registered six wins by knockout, six by submission and three by decision. The accomplished fighter has also won multiple honors. Besides earning the UFC middleweight championship, he is a six-time Performance of the Night honoree.

He is a one-time Fight of the Night winner and is the first Chechen-born fighter to win a UFC championship. He is tied with Demetrious Johnson for fourth-most takedowns landed in a UFC title fight. He accomplished that last August when he defeated Dricus du Plessis at UFC 319 for the middleweight crown. He is also an accomplished wrestler, winning three gold medals at the Swedish Nationals in 2015, 2016 and 2018. Check out SportsLine to see the model’s picks and analysis.

Strickland, 35, has also had a lot of success. In 37 career matches, he has compiled a 30-7 record. He has 12 wins by knockout, four by submission and 14 by decision. He is a former UFC middleweight champion and is No. 3 in the UFC middleweight rankings. He has competed professionally since 2008, and is also a former middleweight champion of the King of the Cage.

Strickland is a four-time Performance of the Night recipient, as well as a one-time Fight of the Night honoree. He has the most significant strikes landed in middleweight division history with 1,575, and the second-most significant strikes landed in UFC history with 2,307. He was a 2023 President’s Choice Performance of the Year nominee, and was ranked as the No. 4 Fighter of the Year by UFC.com in 2023. You can only see the model’s UFC picks and analysis at SportsLine. 

UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland predictions

One of the model’s top UFC 328 picks: It is backing Under 2.5 rounds (+3.1% edge) in the lightweight bout of Jim Miller vs. Jared Gordon, which returns +157. “My model projects 42% probability that this fight finishes Under 2.5 rounds,” McClure stated. “With a 53% overall finish rate and an average fight length of 2.10 rounds, the numbers clearly support taking the Under here. The combined submission rate sits at 45%. When this fight hits the mat, there’s a real chance someone taps. That grappling threat on both sides supports the Under.” See who else to back here. 

New to sports trading? Visit our Kalshi promo code review to see their recent offers and get started. 

How to make UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland picks

The model has 12 other picks from bouts on the UFC card. It is also backing multiple underdogs, as well as a UFC best bet that returns +900. You can see who it is only at SportsLine.

What UFC 328 best bets should you be all over? Visit SportsLine now to get detailed picks and analysis from the advanced model which showed a 6.1% ROI from over 500 fights from 2023-25, and find out.

UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland main fight card, odds 

See picks at SportsLine.
(Odds from DraftKings and subject to change)

Khamzat Chimaev (-520) vs. Sean Strickland (+390)
Joshua Van (+130) vs. Tatsuro Taira (-155)
Alexander Volkov (-130) vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (+110)
Sean Brady (-180) vs. Joaquin Buckley (+150)
King Green (-425) vs. Jeremy Stephens (+330)