On Saturday, UFC’s biggest superstar returns to the Octagon when Conor McGregor faces Max Holloway. The welterweight bout headlines UFC 329 in Las Vegas.
The fight is a rematch of a 2013 fight, which McGregor won in what was just his second UFC fight. Both men went on to have storied careers, winning multiple championships and becoming icons of their era. They now meet again with McGregor having been out of action since suffering a gruesome leg break against Dustin Poirier in July 2021, and having only fought three times since 2018.
McGregor may only have a single victory since 2016, but his stardom is such that any time he steps in the Octagon it’s still a major occasion.
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While Holloway has continued to build on his Hall of Fame resume while McGregor has barely fought, McGregor is only a slight +180 underdog. Despite the odds, many experts feel McGregor’s chances of securing a victory are slim, so we took a look at the fight to determine the three things that could boost McGregor to a massive upset win on Saturday.
Let’s break it down.
UFC 329 fight card: Five biggest storylines to follow in the return of Conor McGregor
Brian Campbell
1. Who is Max Holloway at welterweight?
Holloway is one of the greatest featherweight fighters and champions in history. Saturday’s fight is not at featherweight, though. Instead, Holloway will be fighting at welterweight, 25 pounds higher than his glory days at the welterweight limit of 145 pounds. We’ve seen Holloway fight at lightweight. He lost a 2019 interim title fight to Dustin Poirier, won “BMF” title fights against Justin Gaethje (the current lightweight champion) and Poirier and then lost the symbolic title when taken down repeatedly by Charles Oliveira.
Holloway’s boxing skills are elite in the sport and his chin is legendary, losing by knockout only once in his 36-fight career (in 2024 vs. Ilia Topuria). But moving up in weight does have a physical impact on a fighter. Carrying more weight makes a fighter slower, typically less powerful and there’s a risk of being hit harder than ever by larger opponents.
McGregor also started his UFC career at featherweight, where he won the 145-pound title there before moving up to take lightweight gold. McGregor has competed at welterweight several times in his career. It would be disingenuous to claim he’s been extremely successful at the weight, losing twice to Poirier, going 1-1 against Nate Diaz and battering a badly faded version of Donald Cerrone. However, he’s used to carrying a welterweight frame, even if he has shown a tendency to fatigue as he has put on more mass.
We have a much better idea of who McGregor is as a welterweight than we do what Holloway will look like at 170 pounds, and how Holloway handles the weight is one of the biggest questions coming into the fight.
2. McGregor has never lacked for power
Power will forever be one of the great equalizers in combat sports. The ability to flip someone’s switch with a single shot provides a fighter with a win condition that relies far less on pure skill expression over multiple rounds. McGregor carries the kind of fight-changing power that many others lack. Whether he can find space to land the shot that connects and puts Holloway out is a question, but that a clean shot from the Irishman can put any opponent out is not.
As mentioned, Holloway has a famously good chin, but that chin hasn’t been tested against a welterweight, let alone one who can hit like McGregor. McGregor has just one knockout win at welterweight (and two at lightweight or higher in his UFC career), and that welterweight knockout came against Cerrone in the midst of Cerrone’s career-ending seven-fight losing skid.
Still, McGregor has pop and Holloway is a fighter who loves to stand and strike. The opportunity will be there for McGregor to land some big shots.
3. McGregor laid out the blueprint to beat Holloway in 2013
McGregor has scored five takedowns in his 14 career UFC bouts. Four of those five takedowns came in the first meeting with Holloway. Holloway has been taken down twice or more five times across nine UFC losses (56%). It has happened just three times in 23 UFC wins (13%).
Holloway is a fighter who thrives when he’s in rhythm. Takedowns take him out of that rhythm and force him to fight his way back to standing while being on the defensive. A defensive Holloway is a less dangerous Holloway, and if he’s worried about being taken down, openings to land strikes follow.
That’s exactly how McGregor won the first fight, mixing up takedowns and strikes. In that fight, McGregor had nearly six and a half minutes of ground control across 15 minutes while also adding 53 significant strikes to just 23 for Holloway.
McGregor’s last UFC takedown came one fight after beating Holloway the first time, which means it has been 11 fights and 12 years since he put a fighter on the floor with a takedown. Still, with the previously discussed advantages in size and strength, and with Holloway coming off a fight where he was taken down five times by Oliveira and held on the floor for nearly 21 of 25 minutes, it wouldn’t be a mistake for McGregor to mix in a few takedown attempts to keep Holloway from getting comfortable.
