It’s been nearly a decade since Canada has had a UFC champion. Mike Malott has work to do, but he takes an important step toward holding the same title as Georges St-Pierre by beating Gilbert Burns at UFC Fight Night on Saturday live from Winnipeg.
Burns’ career might be in jeopardy. The one-time welterweight title challenger considered retiring after a quick knockout loss to Michael Morales. It was his fourth consecutive loss, something most fighters don’t recover from. Upon further inspection, Burns reconsidered. The concussion and the Joanna Jedrzejczyk-like hematoma Morales gave him made him reassess if his heart was the issue. Furthermore, his losing streak is to fighters currently ranked in the top six, including two recent champions and one top contender.
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Rebuilding his confidence is at the epicenter of Burns’ game plan. He took the second-longest lay-off of his career to gameplan. He’s met with sports psychologists, conferred with coaches, and refined his training in the necessary ways for a man pushing 40. With his confidence restored, Burns plans to spoil Malott’s big homecoming. However, losing to an unranked fighter would raise serious questions about why “Durinho” keeps fighting.
“Half of me thought that I quit in that fight with Morales. I got to rewatch it. I had the concussion and realized that I didn’t quit,” Burns told CBS Sports. “…I know I can do it, but we need a plan. The Morales fight was crucial to coming back. I had to think about it. After that moment, and a little time off, I can still do it. I need to plan better and relax.”
Malott is becoming an important fixture up north. He makes his sixth consecutive appearance in Canada and gets his first main event slot. UFC clearly sees him as a potential player, and beating Burns is his ticket to the welterweight elite.
Before breaking out on “Contender Series,” Malott was the striking coach for Team Alpha Male. He cornered former UFC champion Cody Garbrandt and Hall of Famer Urijah Faber, studying the blueprint that led him to Saturday’s main event.
“That was such a fun time in my life,” Malott mentioned. “Looking back, it’s so wild that I got to do that before I got to the UFC. I did it backwards from every other coach who moves into coaching after their careers are done. I did it the opposite way. Those are some of the best memories of my life. Going on fight trips with these guys who I love as friends and look up to as martial artists.
“Fast-forward seven or eight years, and now I’m in the main event. It’s a pretty cool journey. This will be a fun life to look back on.”
Canadians occupy space on the top four main card fights, plus numerous preliminary slots. Most notable are Charles Jourdain and Jasmine Jasudavicius. “Air” Jourdain, a dynamic KO and submission artist, looks rejuvenated at bantamweight. A win over division stalwart Kyler Phillips puts him on the cusp of title contention. Jasudavicius was approaching a women’s flyweight title shot before Manon Fiorot knocked her out. She looks to make up for it against Karine Silva.
Let’s take a look at the rest of the fight card with the recent odds from DraftKings before getting to a prediction and expert pick on the main event below.
UFC Fight Night card, odds
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Mike Malott -285
|
Gilbert Burns +230
|
Welterweight
|
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Charles Jourdain -135
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Kyler Phillips +114
|
Bantamweight
|
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Mandel Nallo -170
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Jai Herbert +142
|
Lightweight
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| Jasmine Jasudavicius -310 |
Karine Silva +250 |
Women’s flyweight |
| Gauge Young -155 |
Thiago Moises +130 |
Lightweight |
UFC Fight Night viewing information
Date: April 18 | Start time: 5 p.m. ET (prelims) | 8 p.m. PT (main card)
Location: Canada Life Centre — Winnipeg
Stream: Paramount+ (subscribe now for as low as $8.99 per month)
Prediction
Gilbert Burns vs. Mike Malott: Malott deserves to be a sizeable favorite. Burns is free-falling, and his age doesn’t help. Malott’s KO power isn’t quite at Morales or Jack Della Maddalena’s level, but they’ve likely left Burns’ chin in shambles. Malott has also improved his gas tank since imploding against Neil Magny. That was a bad loss, one where Malott gave away a significant lead and was finished by a journeyman. That’s why, despite logic, I’m siding with the underdog. Malott seems to be a steep decline in challenge relative to the people Burns lost to. If Burns can survive 10 minutes with Malott — who hasn’t reliably finished UFC opponents — I think he can wear down Malott in the latter’s first main event. I’m voting with my heart here, so proceed with caution. Pick: Burns via TKO5
