Before a ball had been kicked, it seemed the 2026 World Cup might struggle to produce much in the way of big team upsets as it trimmed back 48 to 32. That might still be the case, but Uruguay head into their final group game against Spain with their fate very much in the balance. A draw would probably be enough for Marcelo Bielsa’s side to advance, potentially in second place as well as one of the eight best-performing third-place teams. It is, however, a dangerous dance for a team who would have expected to be duking it out for top spot when the group stage draw was made.
What has gone wrong to mean that games against Saudi Arabia and Cabo Verde have delivered two draws? There’s nothing obvious in the analytics. Across their 1-1 and 2-2 draws, they have had two-thirds of the ball, outshot their opponents 44 to 19 and put up 4.04 expected goals while allowing 1.54.
There are caveats to those numbers. That many shots producing 4.04 xG? It’s not Turkiye-levels of bad, but it’s way below average. A lot of Uruguay’s shots were headers or long-range efforts too. The more obvious point too is that this team has done a lot of chasing, down for nearly 40 minutes in their opener and chasing a lead right the way through the Cabo Verde game. In that time, they created four big chances. You would expect more from a team who finished fourth in CONMEBOL qualifying.
That spot was secured quite some time ago, though, and since then, Uruguay have atrophied. Six pre-tournament friendlies delivered one-goal wins over the Dominican Republic and Uzbekistan, three draws and a 5-1 battering at the hands of the United States. That was greeted in typically self-flagellating fashion by Bielsa, who declared himself “toxic.” The exiled Luis Suarez would agree with that and so would some in the Uruguayan press, where there has been much sniping at a coach who rushes headfirst into tension.
His big decisions have backfired. The recalled Fernando Muslera has been at least partially at fault for all three of the goals Uruguay have conceded. Reorienting the attack around Darwin Nunez early in the qualifying cycle seemed a great idea until the striker’s form fell off a cliff at Saudi Arabian club Al-Hilal. Federico Valverde plays off the right for Real Madrid because they have so many talented midfielders that they can afford to shuffle around one of the best in the world. Uruguay don’t have that.
Even despite all that, Uruguay would probably have been fine if they had not had the misfortune to concede sloppy goals that were beyond Bielsa’s control. A high-pressing outfit like this one need to face opponents that come onto them. Cabo Verde tried that a bit and were just quite good but both teams were pretty content to see what creation Uruguay had in this team. Not a lot as it turned out.
That is the worry going into the Spain game. This team might well not be athletic enough to press the European champions into a corner. When they do get the ball, they’re not looking like a team who can carve open the Spanish backline. Uruguay might have been a bit better than Saudi Arabia and Cabo Verde but that doesn’t mean a lot against Friday’s opponents. This is a team right on the brink.
Viewing information
Date: Friday, June 26 | Time: 8 p.m. ET
Location: Estadio Akron — Guadalajara
TV: FOX (Eng), Universo (Spa) | Live stream: Fubo (Try for free)
Odds: Uruguay +550 | Draw +290 | Spain -200
Uruguay vs. Spain predicted lineups
Uruguay: Fernando Muslera; Guillermo Varela; Sebastian Caceres, Mathias Olivera, Juan Manuel Sanabria; Manuel Ugarte, Rodrigo Bentancur, Federico Valverde; Agustin Canobbio, Federico Vinas, Maximiliano Araujo
Spain: Unai Simon; Pedro Porro, Pau Cubarsi, Aymeric Laporte, Marc Cucurella; Mikel Merino, Rodri, Pedri; Lamine Yamal, Mikel Oyarzabal, Nico Williams
Keep up with the World Cup standings here!
Uruguay vs. Spain pick, prediction
There is, of course, a lot more at stake for Uruguay than there is for Spain, and yet it is just not entirely clear that Marcelo Bielsa’s side have the quality to overcome a top-tier contender, no matter the motivation. Expect them to make this game hard for Spain but ultimately fall short. Pick: Uruguay 1, Spain 2
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