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This February, ESPN will televise Super Bowl LXI for the first time. We will count down to the big game with Super Bowl stories every month.
Does the best team in the NFL always win at the end? Winning the Super Bowl is the goal, but the team that takes home the championship isn’t always the best from start to finish. History is littered with teams that dominated in the regular season only to surprise with failures in January or February.
Below, I took a look at some of the most elite teams to fall short of the Super Bowl, according to my proprietary DVOA ratings (explained further here) which looks at efficiency on a play-by-play basis adjusted for situation and opponent. We’ve also included a couple of teams from before 1977 with estimated DVOA ratings.
The top teams by DVOA to miss the Super Bowl are division rivals. One franchise saw its playoff failure very recently, blowing two straight dominant regular seasons. The other franchise saw its best regular-season team fall short 50 years ago.
13-4, lost in AFC Championship Game 17-10 to Chiefs
12-5, lost in AFC divisional round 27-25 to Bills
By DVOA, the 2023 Ravens are the best team that didn’t win the Super Bowl, and the 2024 Ravens are right behind. The 2023 edition ranked fourth in the league in points scored and first in fewest points allowed. The 2024 edition had an even better offense, leading the league in DVOA by dominating the fifth-toughest schedule of opposing defenses.
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The 2023 Ravens weren’t just winning in the regular season; they were blowing out other good teams. They beat the 12-5 Lions by the ridiculous score of 38-6. They beat the 12-5 49ers by two touchdowns on Christmas Day. They beat the 10-7 Texans twice, by 16 points in the regular season and then 24 points in the playoffs.
The 2024 Ravens had some similar wins. They beat the 13-4 Bills by a score of 35-10 and the 10-7 Broncos by a score of 41-10. On Christmas Day, they beat the AFC South champion Texans 31-2.
But the Ravens just couldn’t get over the hump with two close playoff losses. Quarterback Lamar Jackson struggled in 2023, but Baltimore lost to Kansas City in part because wide receiver Zay Flowers fumbled the ball at the goal line. In 2024, Jackson played better in a battle of the previous two MVPs; the Ravens outgained quarterback Josh Allen and the Bills 416-273 in total yards but turned the ball over three times. A last-minute comeback fell short when Mark Andrews dropped a 2-point conversion pass with 1:33 left.
10-4, lost in AFC Championship Game 24-7 to Raiders
The Steel Curtain of 1976 very well might have been the best defense in NFL history, especially from Week 6 onward. In the final nine games of the regular season, the Steelers had five shutouts. They won all nine games by a combined total of 211-28. Then they blew out the Baltimore Colts 40-14 in the divisional round of the playoffs.
Unfortunately, Steelers running backs Franco Harris and Rocky Bleier suffered injuries in the win over the Colts. The next week, the Oakland Raiders shut down the Pittsburgh offense except for a single touchdown drive in the second quarter. The Raiders ended the first half with a surprising play-action touchdown pass from 13 personnel at the goal line and then totally controlled the second half and went on to win Super Bowl XI.
14-2, lost in AFC divisional round 28-21 to Jets
Based on DVOA, the 2010 Patriots had the most efficient offense in NFL history, narrowly surpassing the 16-0 squad from 2007 and the strike-shortened season of the 1982 San Diego Chargers. The Patriots and quarterback Tom Brady dominated with the help of two undrafted running backs (BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Danny Woodhead) and two rookie tight ends (Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez). They scored 32.4 points per game even though they traded wide receiver Randy Moss in early October. The Patriots scored at least 31 points in their final eight games of the regular season, all wins.
The divisional round rematch with their rivals from New York didn’t seem like a big deal, especially since the Patriots had beaten the Jets a few weeks before by the absurd score of 45-3. But Brady threw his first interception since Week 6 on the Patriots’ first drive, setting up the Jets for their first touchdown. A botched fake punt with a direct snap to safety Patrick Chung didn’t help, as the Jets scored their second touchdown on the ensuing drive. The Patriots came back a bit late but couldn’t recover an onside kick, and the Jets won.
The 2010 New England Patriots went 14-2 in the regular season but struggled against the Jets, their AFC East foe, in the divisional round. Jerome Davis/Icon SMI/Corbis/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images5. 1968 Dallas Cowboys (37.8% estimated DVOA)
12-2, lost in NFC divisional round 31-20 to Browns
The Cowboys opened the season by stomping the Lions 59-13 and never looked back. They finished the season with a league-best average of 30.8 points per game and were second in points allowed at 13.3. Don Meredith made the Pro Bowl at quarterback and wide receiver Bob Hayes was a first-team All-Pro with 909 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns. The defense was led by first-team All-Pros defensive tackle Bob Lilly and linebacker Chuck Howley.
But in the playoffs then, home-field advantage was rotated instead of it being based on record, so the Cowboys had to travel to Cleveland to face the 10-4 Browns. It didn’t seem like a worry, since the Cowboys had won 28-7 over the Browns early in the season. But Meredith was terrible, going 3-for-9 with three interceptions before coach Tom Landry replaced him with Craig Morton. The Browns won the game, and Meredith went on to retire that offseason.
12-2, lost in NFC divisional round 27-16 to Cowboys
The Rams had a remarkable streak of coming close in the 1970s. They were 10-4 or better every single season from 1972 to 1978 but never made it to the Super Bowl until they went 9-7 and snuck through the playoffs in 1979. Of all those 1970s Rams teams, the first was the best, leading the league with an average of 27.7 points and finishing fourth with just 12.7 points allowed. Quarterback John Hadl and wide receiver Harold Jackson were both first-team All-Pros, as was linebacker Isiah Robertson.
But the Rams had to go to Texas to play the 10-4 Cowboys in the divisional round. Two Rams turnovers in the first quarter helped the Cowboys to a 14-0 lead. Three missed field goal attempts by David Ray did not help, but the Rams came back and made the score 17-16 with 10 minutes left. Then the Cowboys’ Drew Pearson scored an 83-yard touchdown when Rams defensive backs Dave Elmendorf and Steve Preece ran into each other trying to tackle him.
13-2 (but actually 10-2), lost in NFC divisional round 36-24 to Vikings
Minnesota’s 1987 divisional round upset of the 49ers is one of the greatest upsets in NFL history, but it can be hard to tell because you have to filter through all the nonsense from the 1987 players’ strike.
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The 49ers won all three of their games with replacement players, which suggests they weren’t really as good as their 13-2 record. But they went 10-2 against the sixth-toughest schedule in the NFL that season, so DVOA suggests they were actually better than their “real” 10-2 record. The Niners ranked third in offensive DVOA and first in defensive DVOA. (I don’t include the strike games in 1987 DVOA ratings.)
The Vikings, meanwhile, lost all three of their games with replacement players, which suggests they were better than their 8-7 record. But their “real” 8-4 record came against the third-easiest schedule in the league that season, so DVOA ranks them only No. 7.
The wild-card Vikings blew out the No. 2 team in DVOA, New Orleans, 44-10. Then they went to San Francisco for the divisional round and wide receiver Anthony Carter went off with 10 receptions for an NFL playoff record 227 receiving yards. (Eric Moulds surpassed this record with 240 yards in 1999.) The Vikings had a 20-3 lead at halftime, and 49ers coach Bill Walsh pulled quarterback Joe Montana for Steve Young during the second quarter. Young played well, and the 49ers scored some points, but they couldn’t stop Carter or the Vikings’ offense. It was the last time for 20 years that the NFC’s top seed didn’t reach the NFC Championship Game.
13-3, lost in AFC divisional round 27-10 to Bengals
In the regular season, this was the best of the recent quarterback Josh Allen Bills’ teams. The Bills are the only team in the history of DVOA to finish either first or second in all three phases of the game: second on offense, second on defense, first on special teams. They also finished second in both points scored and allowed. Three of their offensive linemen made the Pro Bowl along with Allen, wide receiver Stefon Diggs and tight end Dawson Knox. On defense, linebacker Matt Milano was a first-team All-Pro.
In the wild-card round, the Bills had a surprisingly close call against a Dolphins team forced to start third-string quarterback Skylar Thompson. They escaped with a 34-31 victory. Their divisional round game presented a rematch of the game that was canceled in Week 17 because of safety Damar Hamlin’s cardiac arrest. It was never close, as the Bengals stormed to a 14-0 lead in the first quarter and never looked back.
The 2022 Bills went 13-3 in the regular season, leading Josh Allen to have one of his career-best seasons. But they were no match to Cincinnati in the divisional round. Michael Reaves/Getty Images9. 2025 Los Angeles Rams (36.2% DVOA)
12-5, lost in NFC Championship Game 31-27 to Seahawks
The Rams and the Seahawks were the two best teams in the NFL for most of the 2025 season. The Rams had the best offense with a good defense (fourth in DVOA), and the Seahawks had the best defense with a good offense (10th in DVOA).
The teams split their regular-season series and then met in a highly-awaited NFC Championship Game. The Seahawks took a 17-13 lead right before halftime and scored another touchdown on the first drive of the third quarter.
The teams traded scores throughout the second half, and the Rams could have taken a lead inside of five minutes, but cornerback Devon Witherspoon prevented a pass from quarterback Matthew Stafford to tight end Terrance Ferguson on fourth down. Seattle killed much of the game clock with an extended drive and the Rams had one last shot with 25 seconds left, but wide receiver Puka Nacua was tackled at midfield, and the Seahawks were off to Super Bowl LX.
13-3, lost in NFC wild-card round 26-20 to Vikings
New Orleans finished first or second in total DVOA for four straight seasons between 2017 and 2020, winning at least 11 games in each season. Quarterback Drew Brees and Michael Thomas led the No. 4 offense by DVOA in 2019, and Cameron Jordan and Demario Davis led the No. 6 defense.
We don’t remember the 2019 team’s playoff loss as well as we remember some of the other Saints playoff losses from this run. This season wasn’t the missed pass interference call against the Rams or the “Minneapolis Miracle,” although the Vikings were involved.
The Vikings ranked seventh in DVOA that season and took a 20-10 third-quarter lead over the Saints in New Orleans. The Saints came back, first with a 20-yard Brees touchdown pass to Taysom Hill and then with a 49-yard Wil Lutz field goal with seven seconds left. But the Vikings won the coin toss in overtime and marched 75 yards down the field. A 4-yard touchdown pass from Kirk Cousins to Kyle Rudolph ended the Saints’ season.
12-4, lost in AFC Championship Game 28-13 to Ravens
11-5, lost in NFC divisional round 30-28 to Falcons
13-3, lost in AFC divisional round 38-35 to Ravens
So, 2012 was a very strange season. The Broncos, Patriots and Seahawks were the top three teams in DVOA during the regular season. It was quarterback Peyton Manning’s first year in Denver, and the season the “Legion of Boom” really blossomed in Seattle. Tom Brady just did his usual Tom Brady things for the Patriots. But all three of those teams went home in January and the 49ers (fourth in DVOA) met the Ravens (only 12th) in Super Bowl XLVII.
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The Ravens tied up Denver with 31 seconds left on a 70-yard touchdown pass from quarterback Joe Flacco to receiver Jacoby Jones as Broncos safety Rahim Moore got lost in coverage. Then they won in double overtime on a 47-yard Justin Tucker field goal after a Manning interception. The next week, the Ravens went to Foxborough and kept the Patriots scoreless in the second half as Brady threw two interceptions.
As for the Seahawks, they took a 28-27 lead with less than a minute left against the Falcons but couldn’t stop quarterback Matt Ryan from completing two passes for 41 yards. That put the Falcons in position for a winning 49-yard field goal by Matt Bryant with 13 seconds left.
But don’t feel too bad for the Broncos, Patriots or Seahawks because they won the next three Super Bowls.
11-5, lost in NFC divisional round 27-17 to Packers
12-4, lost in NFC Championship Game 38-28 to 49ers
Two sides of the same coin: When the 49ers and Cowboys dominated the NFC in the early 1990s, only one team could make the Super Bowl each season. This is back when Sports Illustrated would put the NFC Championship Game on the cover as “The Real Super Bowl.” In 1994 and 1995, one of these rivals was DVOA champion during the regular season but the other one won the Super Bowl.
The 1994 49ers are held down in my ratings by a 40-8 loss to Philadelphia in Week 5, so the Cowboys ended the 1994 season No. 1 in DVOA. They ranked second on both offense and defense during the regular season, while the 49ers were third and fifth, respectively. Although the Cowboys outgained the 49ers 451-294 in yards in the NFC Championship Game, the 49ers turned three turnovers in the first quarter into three touchdowns and then held on to win.
A year later, the 49ers didn’t even get to the NFC Championship Game. San Francisco led the NFL in defensive DVOA even though cornerback Deion Sanders left for Dallas, and their five losses each came by less than a touchdown during the regular season. But they were upset by quarterback Brett Favre and the upstart Packers in the playoffs.
15-1, lost in NFC Championship Game 30-27 to Falcons
We’ll finish up with a team that’s often considered one of the best to fall short of the Super Bowl. It’s a bit of a surprise that DVOA doesn’t like 1998 Minnesota as much as the public does.
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ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN
CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND
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SEA | TB | TEN | WSH
The Vikings don’t come out as a bad team, certainly. They ranked second in 1998 DVOA behind the eventual champion Broncos. But their high-powered, record-setting offense ranked only third by DVOA behind the Broncos and 49ers. Some of this is related to adjustments for playing 10 of 16 games indoors. Some of it is related to the easiest schedule of opposing defenses in the league that season. And some of it is related to the fact that the Vikings specialized in absurdly long explosive touchdowns, and DVOA doesn’t necessarily see those kinds of plays as being quite as predictive as consistency moving the chains.
We don’t remember the 1998 Vikings for their defense, led by defensive end John Randle and linebacker Ed McDaniel. But that side of the ball finished eighth in DVOA, helped in part by the dome adjustments that hurt the offense’s rating.
The Vikings stomped the Cardinals, one of the worst playoff teams ever by DVOA, in the divisional round. Then they took a 27-17 lead over Atlanta in the fourth quarter of the NFC Championship Game. But Gary Anderson missed a field goal attempt for the first time that season with 2:10 left, and the Falcons went 71 yards on the ensuing drive, tying the score on a 16-yard pass from quarterback Chris Chandler to receiver Terance Mathis. The teams traded punts in overtime until the Falcons got Morten Andersen in position for a 38-yard field goal and moved on to Super Bowl XXXIII.
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