The Mariners gave Colt Emerson a chance to win a job out of Spring Training. And then they gave him a $95 million contract back in early April. They’ve wanted him on the major-league team for a while, and we’ve been waiting for him to get the call.
And now he’s finally here.
Emerson is the Mariners top prospect and a consensus top-20 guy across baseball, and he’ll be making his MLB debut Sunday, nearly two months shy of his 21st birthday. If you know nothing else about Emerson except that he’s about to make his MLB debut as a 20-year-old, you should already be pretty excited about him. And, of course, the skill set is plenty exciting in its own right.
Emerson has nine homers and 11 steals in his first 44 games at Triple-A, showcasing a very Fantasy friendly skill set already. And there’s room for him to grow into some more power as he ages, though he’s already registering close to average exit velocity readings as a 20-year-old, which isn’t bad. If it all comes together, Emerson could be one of the best hitters at the position – Scott White hit him with a lofty Corey Seager comp in his preseason top-100 prospects list, which had Emerson No. 10 overall.
Emerson is hitting just .255 at Triple-A, you may notice, with an elevated 27.2% strikeout rate. But this isn’t a case of a young player struggling with contact against minor-leaguers who is about to be exposed by big-leaguers – his contact rate on pitches in the strike zone is 86.5% and he’s showing at least average power to go along with it. The issue is that he tends to be a bit overly aggressive, but he makes enough contact and does enough with it when he does that scouts don’t think it’ll be something he can’t overcome.
It might be too much to expect Emerson to be a true superstar from Day One, of course, but that kind of outcome is possible from any top prospect. The Mariners are calling him up because they need a spark, and he’s likely to open his career as the team’s everyday third baseman for as long as Brendan Donovan is on the IL — and he could shift over to either shortstop or second base if he’s good enough to force the issue. The best-case scenario here could look something like recent top prospect JJ Wetherholt’s first season, where the batting average has been a bit of a drag, but he’s doing enough else well to be viewed as a must-start Fantasy option. It’ll be easier to make that call for Emerson once he gains third base eligibility, though he would still certainly rank below another top prospect, Kevin McGonigle, there.
But Emerson is the kind of prospect worth adding in all leagues just in case he hits his high-end outcomes, especially at a third base position where few teams have no need for an upgrade. Emerson’s aggressive approach at the plate could hold him back, but if he makes enough contact, he could play his way into top-12 status at third in short order.
Here’s who else we’re looking to add when waivers run for Week 8:
Week 9 Waiver Targets
Catcher
Gabriel Moreno, Diamondbacks (43%)
After it looked like he might have taken a step forward last season, it’s been a frustrating season for Moreno so far. Injuries haven’t helped, but he’s also hitting just .228/.276/.354, with both a career-high strikeout rate and career-low walk rate on his ledger. If you’re looking for a hot-hand play, in other worse, you won’t find it with Moreno (though he does have multiple hits in his past two games entering play Sunday). But if you’re looking for something with a little more long-term outlook, I still believe Moreno can get right and get back to being a productive hitter like we saw last season.
Deep league option: Jesus Rodriguez, Giants (15%) – Here’s an interesting question for you: How much does Buster Posey’s faith in Rodriguez matter to you? Rodriguez had only been in the majors for about a week before the Giants opted to move Patrick Bailey, a show of faith in their young catcher … who has gone hitless over the past week entering play Sunday. If you’re looking for another longer term play with some upside, Rodriguez qualifies, even if he hasn’t shown much so far. The larger track record of his minor-league career, where he hit .311/.396./.452 with 20-steal potential is still intriguing.
First Base
Casey Schmitt, Giants (60%)
There are some widely available first basemen who have some long-term upside but aren’t doing much right now, like Spencer Torkelson. But if you need immediate help, Schmitt has played well enough that the Giants have changed many of their infield plans to accommodate getting him in the lineup regularly. He was slowing down a bit early in May, but then he went off for a four-hit, two-homer game Saturday, so he isn’t fading out just yet. Helping his case: He’s eligible to play every infield position except shortstop right now, so you probably have somewhere to play him.
Deep league option: Dominic Smith, Braves (9%) – Smith basically only plays against right-handed pitching, even then, not always. But with Sean Murphy going back on the IL, Smith looks like he’ll continue to get reps against righty starters, and the Braves are set to face five this week, so Smith could be a viable streamer for deeper leagues.
Second Base
Sam Antonacci, White Sox (39%)
Antonacci is going to get on base. Both because he has a good approach at the plate with excellent contact skills and because he loves to take a hit-by pitch, something he’s already done 11 times in 42 games between the majors and minors this season. That doesn’t show up directly in Fantasy production in Roto leagues, but it gives him added chances to run, something he’s doing more of lately, going 3 for 4 on steal attempts in his past 10 games entering Sunday. With a strong skill set for batting average and increased aggressiveness on the basepaths, Antonacci’s Fantasy appeal is starting to come into focus. I think he’ll matter in all formats.
Deep league option: Brice Matthews, Astros (16%) – Compare that to Matthews, who is basically just a hot-hand play for Roto leagues. Matthews has legitimate talent, and it is shaped in a very Fantasy friendly way, with power and speed. He’s also the kind of player who is going to be a big drain on your batting average when he isn’t running hot, so you’ll have to decide if chasing some homers and steals is worth the hit to your average.
Third Base
Zack Gelof, Athletics (37%)
You’ve heard the Gelof hype before. Maybe you even fell for it once before. You should be skeptical about him suddenly re-emerging as a viable Fantasy option. But you should be open to it! He’s always had an interesting, Fantasy-friendly skill set that was held back by an inability to make consistent contact. Well, we’re only about 90 plate appearances into his season, but we have seen Gelof cut almost 10 points from his career strikeout rate, and when you check under the hood you’re seeing a significantly more patient approach overall (including cutting his chase rate from 28.4% to 19.9%, an elite mark) and adding a few points to his overall contact rate. And he’s doing that while adding a few ticks to his average exit velocity. It might all fall apart – in fact, I’d probably bet on that. But Gelof is young enough that he may just have figured something out here, and it’s worth taking a chance on him, especially with eligibility at second, third, and the outfield.
Deep league option: Vaughn Grissom, Angels (5%) – It started out with Grissom only starting against lefties, but now he has started eight of the past 11 against righties, too, including one Friday where he hit leadoff – something he has also been doing against lefties lately. Even the best-case scenario probably only sees Grissom emerging as a mild help in batting average, but given a seeming everyday role with some valuable lineup real estate, he’s an interesting hot-hand play with eligibility at second, third, and first base.
Shortstop
Franklin Arias, Red Sox (15%)
With Trevor Story mulling undergoing surgery, the Red Sox may have a long-term hole at shortstop, and so far, they aren’t showing any willingness to move Marcelo Mayer there – in three games without Story to date, Andruw Monasterio has started at short, with Mayer staying at second base. Monasterio can’t be a real long-term answer for a team that presumably still wants to compete this season, so I wonder if this might not bump Arias’ timetable up? He’s a top-20 prospect in baseball who hasn’t looked challenged at Double-A this season, hitting .343/.429/.630 with almost as many walks as strikeouts. Will they be willing to push the 20-year-old’s timetable up? Probably not if it’s just a short-term absence for Story. But if he opts for surgery? That could open the door to an aggressive promotion.
Deep league option: Braden Shewmake, Astros (3%) – Shewmake was, at one point, a pretty interesting prospect, though he has bounced around a few organizations since and hasn’t made much of an impact in the majors before the past few weeks. But he’s playing regularly for the Astros right now with Jeremy Pena on the IL and could be a short-term fill-in for some batting average help.
Outfield
AJ Ewing, Mets (61%)
Ewing isn’t quite on Emerson’s level as a prospect, but he might be just as well suited for an immediate impact in the majors. He’s a patient hitter with excellent contact skills and while power will likely never be a big part of his game, he has already shown there is legitimate pop in his bat if he ever tweaks his swing. For now he’s content to spray the ball all over the field and let his elite speed take care of the rest. In a best-case scenario, he could be what we were hoping Jakob Marsee might be – a high-OBP, prototypical leadoff man with enough pop to not be a total zero. And he’s shown enough in his first week that he’s going to have a long leash for the Mets. I don’t think he’s going anywhere any time soon.
JJ Bleday, Reds (69%)
If you want more thoughts on Bleday, I went deep in Friday’s newsletter in case you missed it. Here’s the short version: It’s reasonable to be skeptical about Bleday’s sudden, age-28 breakout, but I think it’s also reasonable to act as if the breakout is for real. The underlying numbers all back it up, and it’s not like this is entirely new – he declared to Spring Training with a significant increase in average bat speed, and has dominated in spring, Triple-A, and now the majors. It may all fall apart before long, but for now, I think Bleday should just be added in all leagues just in case.
Carson Benge, Mets (65%)
Sometimes it takes a little while to figure it out, and at least Benge looks like he’s figuring it out sooner than Bleday did. After finishing April with a season-long OPS of just .525, Benge has looked a lot more like he belongs, hitting .333/.390/.463 since the start of May with just nine strikeouts to four walks in 59 trips to the plate. We’d like to see a little more impact beyond the batting average – he has just one homer and two steals during this hot streak – but the upside is there for him to be a 15-homer, 25-steal kind of guy.
Ryan Waldschmidt, Diamondbacks (59%)
This time last week, Waldschmidt looked like the top target among outfielders. And while he hasn’t been overwhelmed in his first nine MLB games, he hasn’t been great, either, hitting .280 but with just two extra-base hits (neither a homer). But this is still a top prospect who performed in the minors and should have a relatively long leash in a good Diamondbacks lineup, so I’m not ready to give up on him yet. I might prioritize some of the other names ahead of him, but if Waldschmidt is available in your league, he’s probably the low-priced alternative with similar upside this week.
Austin Martin, Twins (14%)
Martin is going to get some real everyday run, and it’s going to test him – before this, he’s been a part-timer against righties while racking up hits against lefties. He has a high-contact approach that has led to a .280 expected average over the past two seasons, with enough speed to matter in any Roto league. The question is whether he’ll do enough else besides line singles all over the place to truly be a worthwhile option in all Fantasy formats. For now, I’m content to add him in Roto leagues for an injection of speed and average and take anything more as a bonus.
Starting Pitcher
Logan Henderson, Brewers (74%)
There’s no reason Henderson shouldn’t be 100% rostered at this point. He’s made nine starts at the major-league level and has a 2.49 ERA and 32.9% strikeout rate. The Brewers have been hesitant to commit to him in the past, but at this point, with the way he’s pitching, he has to be forcing their hands. It’s still a small sample size of success, but the underlying metrics mostly back it up and he’s been plenty productive in the high-minors, too. He won’t remain a sub-3.00 ERA guy for long, I would bet, but I don’t see much reason to doubt him at this point, either.
Bryce Miller, Mariners (66%)
Miller was solid in his return from the IL this week. Not incredible, but solid – you’d like to see more missed bats from him, especially with his fastball velocity up several ticks to a career-high 97.2 mph in his first start back. I think Miller might benefit from simplifying his approach a bit – his four-seamer was key to his success early in his career, and if he’s going to sit 96-97 with it, I’d like to see what he could do by really prioritizing it. But he’s been an effective pitcher in the past with less velocity, so I’m interested to see what he can do moving forward. I think he should also be rostered pretty much everywhere.
Connor Prielipp, Twins (33%)
There are going to be bumps in the road along the way, and the Twins have already stated they will try to limit his workload when they can, primarily by keeping him on an every-sixth-day pitching schedule. But Prielipp’s stuff clearly plays at the MLB level, and he just put the finishing touches on a two-start week where he struck out 14 while giving up two earned runs across 11 innings. In points leagues, I think the shorter outings and limiting workload will make it tough to trust Prielipp outside of two-start weeks, but I like him as a strikeout target for Roto leagues, at least.
Jared Jones, Pirates (62%)
Jones is nearing a return from an Internal Brace procedure on his right elbow, and he has looked about as good as you could hope on his rehab assignment, sitting a tick or more up across his entire arsenal with one earned run allowed in 10 innings entering Sunday’s start. But general manager Ben Cherington was non-committal about Jones’ role when he spoke with the media last week, saying the team views him as a starting pitcher in the long term, but that they are open to using him in different roles. Which brings up an interesting question: Could Jones be the answer to the Pirates’ ongoing closer questions? Gregory Soto has been fine enough, but he has a pretty mediocre recent track record, and Dennis Santana seems to be out of the picture. Could Jones emerge as a late-inning weapon for them? I think it’s at least possible if they don’t stick with him in the rotation!
Ben Brown, Cubs (43%)
I still have my questions about how this whole thing is going to work out in the long run for Brown, who still has a very limited arsenal that could become an issue against lefty-heavy lineups, especially when he has to start trying to go deeper into games. But he has been exceptional both out of the bullpen and in his two abbreviated starts so far, so it’s worth considering the possibility that he may just be able to make this work. With 10 strikeouts to two walks over eight shutout innings in his two starts, I’m at least intrigued enough to consider Brown worth adding at this point.
Relief Pitcher
Gregory Soto, Pirates (62%)
Until and unless the Pirates do decide to move Jones into the bullpen, I think this is probably going to remain Soto’s job. I don’t have a ton of faith in him – and after he blew a save Friday, the team might not either – but he’s been consistently better than Dennis Santana, who struggled in multiple outings yet again this weekend. As long as Soto can avoid losing grip of the rope, he should be a fine closer for Fantasy.
Rico Garcia, Orioles (50%)
How’s this for a wild stat: Garcia allowed his second hit of the season Sunday. It wasn’t a save as the Orioles won by four, and he hasn’t had a save since May 10, over a week. However, the Orioles have only had one save since then, so I’m not too worried about Garcia’s role. He may not be the solitary closer for the Orioles, but I think he’s the most likely option to get whatever the next save chance is here, given his success in high-leverage work this season.
