LAS VEGAS — If it isn’t crazy enough to come to the realization that Conor McGregor, the former two-division UFC champion and biggest star in MMA history, hasn’t stepped foot inside the Octagon in five full years, try your hand at digesting this one:
McGregor (22-6) has recorded just one UFC victory — a 40-second squash of Donald Cerrone at UFC 246 in 2020 — in the last 10 years.
As Sportsnet’s Aaron Bronsteter pointed out this week, the 1,827 days since McGregor broke his left leg in a first-round TKO loss to Dustin Poirier in their 2021 trilogy is somehow a longer gap than the 1,603 days between McGregor’s 2013 UFC debut and the 2017 boxing superfight against Floyd Mayweather that forever altered the career arc (and financial portfolio) of the Irish megastar.
So, as the hype continues to build ahead of McGregor’s return on Saturday when he headlines International Fight Week in a UFC 329 welterweight main event, the narrative has centered much more upon the massive questions facing “The Notorious” icon than the realities of his rematch, some 13 years in the making, against the 34-year-old former featherweight and BMF champion Max Holloway (27-9).
“The Notorious” Conor McGregor — career in focus
Save for having more hair on top of his head (despite a noticeable bald spot forming in the back) and a thicker frame given this is a 170-pound fight, McGregor looked close enough physically to the version of himself who last fought. And his combination of confidence and charisma was still present at Wednesday’s media day, albeit much more toned down than the McGregor of old, with more profound references to his faith recommitment following a particularly chaotic layoff, which included being found civilly liable in his 2025 rape trial in Ireland.
Conor McGregor’s physique in 2021 vs. 2026 after nearly five years away from the Octagon 👀 #UFC329 pic.twitter.com/75bjTbFVF2
— Championship Rounds (@ChampRDS) July 9, 2026
“Hallelujah, the Mac is back. Hallelujah, baby, thank God,” McGregor mentioned. “This is the day the Lord has made and I will be glad and rejoice in it. It’s great to be back. Weight is on point. Body is on point. Mind is sharper than ever. The plan is laid set and we are ready to go to war.”
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Less than a week out from his 38th birthday, it’s difficult not to talk about McGregor’s fighting story without the element of regret for what could’ve been.
In his first four years as a UFC fighter, McGregor went 9-1, became the first simultaneous two-division champion, avenged his only defeat in a five-round classic with Nate Diaz at welterweight in 2016 and recorded knockouts of Dustin Poirier, Chad Mendes, Jose Aldo and Eddie Alvarez in marquee fights. But since 2016, McGregor is just 1-3 with three stoppage defeats and a gruesome injury that typically ends careers.
So, as McGregor spent most of Wednesday talking about how grateful he was to be back in this position and how much he expects his return to spark a business boom for the promotion, just 27 days removed from the massive UFC Freedom 250 event at the White House, both fans and media alike remained skeptical.
McGregor doesn’t just have age against him or inactivity, he has a reputation over the second half of his career for prioritizing life’s excesses above the type of maniacal focus and visualization that defined his initial rise. In fact, McGregor all but excuses in recent interviews his 2018 loss to Khabib Nurmagomedov in the biggest fight in UFC’s 33-year history as a result of him juggling drinking and recreational drug use with his training.
So, when critics try and come to terms with exactly what version of McGregor is even capable of appearing on Saturday, the realities of his five-year layoff need to be taken into account. This wasn’t McGregor living a spartan lifestyle outside of the cage, which was a key part of what made UFC Hall of Famer Georges St-Pierre’s return from a five-year retirement in 2017 to capture the middleweight title from Michael Bisping even possible.
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McGregor has done nothing but flaunt his party lifestyle in recent years while being attached to a series of unscrupulous headlines and legal battles. And there’s also the reminders of International Fight Week just two years ago when McGregor was booked for the main event at UFC 303 opposite fellow “The Ultimate Fighter” coach Michael Chandler only to pull out 16 days before with a broken toe.
Considering the irony of McGregor being replaced atop the marquee for that 2024 event by Alex Pereira, who was fresh off of a UFC 300 win just two months earlier in which he entered the fight with a broken toe and suffered a second one during his first-round knockout of Jamahal Hill, critics of McGregor spoke vocally about the possibility of McGregor using the injury as an excuse to bolt from a fight he wasn’t physically or mentally ready for.
Those same critics are, understandably, not giving McGregor more than a puncher’s chance beyond the opening minutes of Round 1 against Holloway. Others were surprised he even accepted such a difficult style matchup against a fighter who is still so close to his prime, having scored victories over Dustin Poirier (who stopped McGregor twice in 2021) and current lightweight champion Justin Gaethje in the last two years alone.
McGregor mentioned he has no regrets for his behavior, both inside and out of the Octagon in recent years — only thankfulness “for the lessons I have learned and the position God has put me in.” He did, however, seem to take umbrage with two things on Wednesday: the realities of his much-publicized civil case for sexual assault, which he mentioned “still stings deeply” as he vehemently campaigned for his innocence while quoting Bible verses regarding truth, and the fact that many have questioned whether his hunger to fight is still there.
“If I didn’t have the fire or the hunger, yet I’m up against one of the most active bodies in the fight game in Max Holloway, I just think it’s silly to say this,” McGregor mentioned. “There is a colossal challenge in front of me that I am entering with supreme confidence. It’s magnificent. The fire is in my belly roaring and it’s about to be released on Saturday night.
“[There’s] nothing better than proving people wrong. People are entitled to their opinion. Some are valid. There are some questions: time out, injury, lifestyle. I know. We are going to go in and shut them all up again.”
McGregor, who opened as a still respectable +250 betting underdog, has seen the odds of him pulling an upset move drastically (from +420 at its peak to around +185) due to the fact that 75% of money coming in to Las Vegas has been bet on the Irishman fueled by nostalgic hope and global stardom. For the record, McGregor is just 4-3 as an underdog in his UFC career.
But it has been difficult to find many people predicting a realistic path to victory for this version of McGregor beyond landing the perfect punch early.
McGregor, even in his prime, has had issues at times with stamina in the rare times his fights have gone beyond the early part of the second round. And he’s facing a precise volume striker in Holloway who has been teasing all week the idea of his intention to break McGregor’s stamina and expose his gas tank once the early adrenaline wears off.
“I hope he likes swimming because we are going to drown him,” Holloway told CBS Sports on Tuesday.
If there was anything to glean from McGregor’s chat regarding his potential strategy ahead of this rematch, it might come — surprisingly — in the form of wrestling.
It’s a key part of the MMA skillset that McGregor has never mastered and has rarely employed beyond the second half of his 2013 win over Holloway, when a torn ACL injury suffered midfight forced McGregor strategically into holding Holloway down from top position. It’s also important to note that Holloway was badly outgrappled in his last fight in March when Charles Oliveira relied on wrestling to win all five rounds in their BMF title rematch at UFC 326.
“I plan to contort Max’s body into such uncomfortable positions and have my way with him.” McGregor mentioned. “Our preparation for this bout has been very meticulous. We have been very secretive. Nothing has really come out on our approach, on our styles. There is a full-fledged mixed martial artist stepping into that Octagon on Saturday and I’m excited to show it.”
McGregor admitted he never doubted himself once when it came to accepting this fight or preparing for it, saying he “outworked doubt” throughout training camp. And he credited his reconnection with God in changing his heart.
“You got to do deep, internal work. It’s many moments [that led to this], actually, it’s not just one,” McGregor mentioned. “It’s a whole sequence of events and almost divine coincidences that could not be anything but the higher power and I connected to it. I am not my body, I am not my feelings, I am not my thoughts. I am my soul. And my soul is connected to the highest power.”
Although this certainly wouldn’t be the biggest upset in MMA history should McGregor get his hand raised for the second time against Holloway, it remains an unlikely scenario for most. Predicting McGregor fights in his prime were never easy, mostly because of the “magic” he brought to each matchup, which amounted to a combination of his incredible self-belief and his maniacal physical preparation and seemed to act as a superpower.
But with this exact type of layoff, this exact injury he’s recovering from and a full decade of inactivity and excess, it would likely take divine intervention for McGregor to find a way to spark even flashes of who the self-proclaimed “Mystic Mac” used to be.
“[I’m here to] prove myself to myself: I am who I say I am. I am that I am,” McGregor mentioned. “[Monday’s headlines will say] ‘The Mac is well and truly back.’ The performance is going to be off the charts. I have some shot selection here and some set of moments that I have planned for this bout. I’m excited to showcase it.
“I’m in a great space. Bring on the chaos, baby. I am calm in the chaos. I’m comfortable in the uncomfortable.”
In fighting, just like often in life, you reap what you sow. And McGregor is set to find out against Holloway whether years of neglect to his craft have the kind of costly price tag that even the sport’s richest career can’t afford to pay.
