What does 1-0 win mean for Scotland’s chances of qualification?ByScott MullenBBC Sport Scotland at Boston StadiumPublished1 hour agoScotland fans are no strangers to pondering permutations. But the stakes are much, much higher at a World Cup finals.What would a point here mean? What if we lose that one? Might our rivals drop points elsewhere?The conversations will already have started, in that most Scottish of ways. Win your first World Cup game in 36 years, immediately think you’ll probably lose the next two, and wonder if you’re out or not already.That’s the spirit.After the opening round of matches, Scotland sit top of Group C, Brazil and Morocco trailing in their wake. But what chance of a first ever progression out of a major tournament group stage?Figure caption, McGinn fires Scotland to first World Cup win for 36 yearsWould three points be enough for last 32?Everyone had this down as a must-win. Purely based on the belief Scotland were likely aiming to be one of the best eight third-placed teams from the 12 groups.Sitting top of the section was not something many would have imagined, though.But first let’s start of with the doomsday scenario. Scotland lose to both Morocco and Brazil and manage to finish third. Then it comes down to goal difference.With the win in Boston by just a single goal, Steve Clarke’s side now arithmetically can’t finish on three points with anything other than a negative goal difference. According to Football Meets Data, external, a goal difference of -1 offers an 87.5% chance of progression, which would be a reality if the Scots lost by a single goal in their final two games.
That drops to 69.4% with a -2 difference, and 47.3% at -3. You get the picture.
