Over or under? The teams we like to hit or miss on projected win totalsplayWill the Bengals bounce back? How many games will the Falcons win this season?! (13:19)ESPNMultiple AuthorsAug 27, 2026, 07:23 AM ET
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It seems simple enough. Take a team to go over or under a projected win total. Then injuries pop up, or perhaps an unknown star emerges, changing a team’s trajectory.
Seventeen NFL teams went over their totals last year, and 15 went under. The Arizona Cardinals’ number heading into last season was 8.5, and they finished with just three wins. The Kansas City Chiefs, who had been to three straight Super Bowls, were set at 11.5 and won six games. The Washington Commanders won five after entering with an over/under of 9.5 wins.
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Other teams hit the over with ease. The Jacksonville Jaguars had a total of 7.5 and went 13-4. And the Denver Broncos (9.5), New England Patriots (8.5) and Seattle Seahawks (8.5) all won 14 games.
This season, nine teams projected for double-digit wins. The Los Angeles Rams and Baltimore Ravens are tied for the highest number at 11.5. The Miami Dolphins and Cardinals have the lowest at 3.5.
Which teams will hit the over and which ones will fall short of win totals in 2026? We asked our analysts to break down the odds and offer their best bets.
Note: Odds by DraftKings
and subject to change.
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Cincinnati Bengals OVER 10.5 wins (+115)
Matt Bowen: I’m buying the Bengals — and a healthy Joe Burrow — with a revamped defensive front. Yes, Burrow’s availability concerns have been an issue. But let’s go back to the 2024 season, when Burrow played in all 17 games, throwing for 4,919 yards and 43 touchdowns, both of which were tops in the league. The league’s best pocket thrower, Burrow has two premier targets in Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, while Chase Brown is a productive starter in the backfield. Plus, with the trade for defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence II, who still has game-changing traits, and pass-rush help, Cincy is in a position (with the third-easiest schedule) to hit the over.
Miami Dolphins UNDER 3.5 wins (+120)
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Pamela Maldonado: It’s an extremely low bar, but Miami simply doesn’t have the pieces to win games. This is a complete overhaul: new coaching staff, new quarterback, and Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Bradley Chubb and Minkah Fitzpatrick are all gone. QB Malik Willis gets his first real opportunity to start, but his supporting cast is dramatically different than the one he had in Green Bay. Miami is projected to have the league’s worst receiving room, and first-round tackle Kadyn Proctor can’t fix the offensive line by himself. De’Von Achane is the one proven difference-maker, but even his schedule against the run gets tougher. More concerning is a defense projected to be bottom of the league entering the season and playing the second-hardest schedule overall, including top-10 hardest slates for both passing and rushing offenses. Miami could be playing from behind a lot, which also puts Willis in exactly the type of game script he hasn’t proven he can handle. The Dolphins might have the worst record in the NFL.
New Orleans Saints OVER 7.5 wins (-120)
Eric Moody: The Saints have a real shot at eight wins. New Orleans went 5-4 after Tyler Shough took over at quarterback last season, with the offense averaging 19.8 points and 235.2 passing yards per game over that stretch. Shough now gets another year with Kellen Moore and star wideout Chris Olave and has additions in first-round pick Jordyn Tyson and free agent Travis Etienne Jr. The schedule is favorable too, with one of the easiest slates in the league in a wide-open NFC South. The Saints defense also came on late last season, allowing just 17.5 points per game from Week 10 on. Eight wins is well within reach.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers OVER 8.5 wins (+115)
Liz Loza: After failing to win the division for the first time in four years, GM Jason Licht opted to overhaul much of Tampa Bay’s operation. Zac Robinson, a former NFL quarterback who served as Baker Mayfield’s position coach in 2022, was brought in to implement a system that maximized the Bucs’ offense under Liam Coen. Robinson’s “true run-and-pass marriage,” figures to elevate the running game and provide stability for Mayfield. This scheme is likely to be well supported by a top-three ranked offensive line, a deep backfield and an ascending group of young wide receivers. A shaky secondary and the retirement of LB Lavonte David are key gaps to fill, but the unit’s infusion of pass-rushing talent should help balance the defense. Noting a favorable schedule (12th easiest), the Bucs should push toward 10 wins.
Tennessee Titans UNDER 6.5 wins (-115)
Seth Walder: I see multiple ways for this season to go wrong for Tennessee. The simplest path is that Cam Ward simply doesn’t develop. If that’s the case, then it doesn’t matter how many pass catchers the team brings in — the offense won’t move. And while head coach Robert Saleh does lend confidence to the defense, I worry that the new cornerback tandem of Alontae Taylor and Cor’Dale Flott were overpays that won’t be able to produce at their 2025 level at a notoriously volatile position. I’m open to lower bound alternate lines here, too (like under 4.5 wins at +320) for a big payout in the event that Ward really struggles.
Win Totals OddsTeamWins (O/U)Los Angeles Rams
