Why the wide-open Ballon d’Or race could crown an unexpected winner after wild 2026 World Cup

Entering the World Cup, the race for the Ballon d’Or seemed like it came down to three people: Harry Kane, Michael Olise, and Kylian Mbappe. But with all three failing to win the tournament, and Kane not even being the sole highest scorer on the England squad, this is a race that is now open for one of the most prestigious awards in global soccer. Previously, the award only accounted for accomplishments in one calendar year, but since the last edition in 2025, which Ousmane Dembele won, it now accounts for an entire standard European season, which runs from August 1 to July 31.

Have no fear, because Lionel Messi and other players in leagues that aren’t following the European cycle are still eligible for the award since geographic restrictions on it came to an end in 2007 — prior to then, it was an award meant for soccer players based in European leagues. Someone also doesn’t need to win the World Cup to be eligible for the award, which brings us into murky territory. When there isn’t a World Cup, these awards can be a bit easier to make sense of, as more teams and players are involved in continental national team competition vs. a tournament where only 48 teams in the entire world can make it.

There are three main pillars that are used in Ballon d’Or voting. Individual performance when stat-based metrics are used, team achievements, which aren’t available to everyone depending on what competitions a team takes part in, and then there’s class and fair play, which is more subjective and where this award can go a bit off the rails, especially when at any moment new awards can be created.

Back in 2020, Robert Lewandowski was favored to win the Ballon d’Or, but it was canceled due to COVID. But in 2021, he came in second behind Messi, with a new award being created to be given to the striker of the year. Lewandowski won that award in back-to-back seasons, but didn’t secure the full award.

There was a monopoly held on the award by Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo, who won it a whopping 13 times since Ronaldo’s first in 2008, with only two players, Luka Modric and Karim Benzema, breaking their streak before Messi’s move to Inter Miami. Since that move in 2023, Rodri has captured the Ballon d’Or and Dembele has won it as well.

Rodri’s win was during what would be considered a down season when it came to candidates, with Manchester City capturing the treble, winning the Premier League, FA Cup, and Champions League, while Spain also won the European Championship. That year, Vinicius Junior was expected to win, leading to Real Madrid boycotting the ceremony. Considering that there is no clear frontrunner, this is another time where an unexpected winner could rise to the top of the ranks. Kane is still the odds-on favorite right now, but considering the existence of the striker-specific award, the Bayern Munich man could come in second in the award rankings and then win the award for best striker, where he does have a leg up on Erling Haaland.

This was the first World Cup with Haaland due to Norway’s improvement as a soccer power, and there was a star who didn’t make the tournament in Khvicha Kvaratskhelia. The Paris Saint-Germain man was excellent for club and country, scoring 22 goals, but it’s not enough of an output to outweigh not being at the World Cup. There likely is too much emphasis put on the tournament, but that won’t be changing anytime soon.

Ballon d’Or top candidates

All stats include play for club and country.

When breaking it down, you can see why Kane would be the leading candidate for the award. He has the most goals and assists with 81 and also has the most individual honors, so that should be done and dusted, right? Well, not exactly. Spain’s candidates don’t exactly stack up, with Lamine Yamal only scoring once during the World Cup and Rodri struggling with injuries in what was a down year for Manchester City. With a World Cup title, Kane or Mbappe would’ve had iron-clad cases, but with both playing in the third-place game, it opens the door for Lionel Messi.

The Ballon d’Or is not a lifetime achievement award, but sometimes it is treated as one. While Argentina didn’t win the World Cup, Messi has absolutely dominated Major League Soccer and put up an absurd goal output. Contributing 1.55 goals per game is just nuts; there’s no way around it. And when there’s uncertainty in the race for the Ballon d’Or and Messi is having a season that would statistically be worthy, fortune favors the Argentine.

Intangibles also come into play, as at 39 this could be the final time that Messi is truly eligible for this award. Mbappe and Haaland are looking to take up his mantle, and Yamal is also coming. With eight Ballon d’Ors to his name, what better time to add a ninth and potentially final one? There are issues to this form of thinking, but it’s an award determined by humans, so there’s no perfect criteria that will break down how votes are cast. Kane is a deserving winner, especially with the ceremony taking place in London, but in a field of uncertainty, Messi could rise and claim it.