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On Monday night, 10-seed Virginia Cavaliers pulled off the first big upset of the 2026 women’s basketball championship by taking down 2-seed Iowa, a 13.5-point outright upset that was the largest in the tournament since 2023, per ESPN Research. It was one of three upsets to shake up the futures odds on the final day of round-of-32 play.
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The biggest beneficiary of the Cavaliers’ heroics was South Carolina, which now gets an easier perceived path to the national semifinals and moved from +900 to +750 for the national championship as a result. TCU’s odds also benefited from the upset, improving from 150-1 to 100-1, and the Horned Frogs will now take on Virginia in the next round.
UConn (-255) received a very slight improvement to its future odds, while the other favorites — UCLA (+450), Texas (+750) and LSU (17-1) — saw no movement. Vanderbilt saw its odds lengthen from 60-1 to 75-1, while Michigan moved up from 100-1 to 80-1. At BetMGM, the Wolverines are listed as the second-largest liability and the UCLA Bruins are the third-largest.
Through the first two rounds, there is one perfect bracket remaining in ESPN’s Women’s Tournament Challenge. The unblemished entry will need a Final Four of UConn, UCLA, Texas and TCU, with the Longhorns ultimately winning it all.
Odds by DraftKings Sportsbook as of time of publication and are subject to change.
2026 Women’s College Basketball Championship(Seed) SchoolRecordTo WinFinalsSemisRd. of Eight(1) UConn Huskies
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