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That’s 24 games featuring 48 teams in the books. Or, as FIFA would put it: the biggest first matchday ever, at the biggest World Cup ever.
And despite FIFA’s best efforts, the opening slate of matches was about as good as it gets. We had hosts showing up, favorites falling off, players speaking out, stars stepping up, puppies pooping on platforms, and … OK, I’ll spare you any more alliteration.
Of course, soccer is more random than any of the major American sports. Favorites win way less often. There are barely any shots, let alone goals. We have only 90 minutes of data for each of these teams and that’s just way too small of a sample size to say anything — actually, who am I kidding?
We get to do this only once every four years. So, let’s get silly. Now that every team in the World Cup has played exactly one game, it’s time to massively overreact to everything we just saw.
As I wrote about earlier this week, teams that play as well as the U.S. men’s national team did in its first game — pressing high, dominating territory, plowing the ball into the penalty area — tend to go pretty far in the World Cup. And it’s not as if they were playing some minnow who was lucky to be in the tournament.
No, Paraguay beat Argentina and Brazil in World Cup qualifying. And during World Cup qualifying, Paraguay conceded 10 total goals across 18 games. In other words, the U.S. reached 40% of that total — in one match.
Given how successful we’ve seen the Americans be, how little training time they require, and how few goals are scored in these tournaments overall, it’s bordering on managerial malpractice to not value set plays. Throw a bunch of bodies into the six-yard box, make sure you’re hitting in-swinging corners, and reap the rewards.
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Or … not.
Through one game, the Americans have created 0.06 expected goals (xG) from set pieces — a tally better than only a handful of other teams. Plus, the one goal they conceded, and nearly half of the xG they conceded? It came from a set piece.
When manager Julian Nagelsmann swapped shirts during Germany’s final pre-World Cup friendly against the U.S., I assumed it was because there was pouring rain and he had nothing but a white T-shirt on and he never looked so beautiful, baby, as he does now. Sorry, where was I?
Oh yeah: It appears I was wrong!
🇩🇪 Julian Nagelsmann changed his outfit at half-time during Germany vs Curaçao 😅.
His team went on to pick up a 7-1 win 🦾 pic.twitter.com/ZfaWIhZObx
— ESPN Asia (@ESPNAsia) June 14, 2026
Actually, Nagelsmann wore four outfits during Germany’s first match of the World Cup: (1) an Adidas-issued Germany outfit before the game, (2) the knit, button-down polo for the first half, (3) the baggy black tee for the second half, and (4) the Germany swag after the game.
Nagelsmann mentioned he changed outfits because it was too hot. Someone please send him this guide on “How to dress when it’s too hot.” Whatever Nagelsmann is doing is clearly working:
Each circle is a shot — the larger the circle, the higher the xG of the shot. Purple are shots, orange are goals.
Curacao might be the worst team in the tournament, but no one else came close to reaching the level that Germany did in their first match.
In Ivory Coast’s opening match, Yan Diomande, per the new stats app Futi, generated 1.2 expected assists and beat seven defenders off the dribble — both of which lead the tournament so far. And he didn’t do this against an outmatched minnow. He did it against one of the best defensive teams in the tournament.
If you thought Paraguay’s defensive numbers sounded good, listen to this: Ecuador gave up only six goals in CONMEBOL’s World Cup qualifying.
Diomande is 19 years old, he has one season of top-level professional play under his belt in Germany with RB Leipzig, and his estimated market value from the site Transfermarkt is €90 million. That was the number before the tournament started — it’s going to be way higher when it ends.
OK fine, this isn’t even an overreaction. It’s a literal fact, and it probably contributed to the most ridiculous thing that has happened over the first week of the tournament:
Tunisia fired their coach and replaced him with Herve Renard, the World Cup specialist who looks like one of the Lannister twins from “Game of Thrones.”
As of last week, Renard hadn’t met any of Tunisia’s players. What could go wrong?
We’ve seen Spain do this before — in pretty much every World Cup since 2010. They dominate possession to an absurd degree but can’t create the requisite quantity and quality of chances to match.
In their scoreless draw against Cape Verde, most of that was due to a simple fact: injuries. And one incredible fact: Vozinha — a 40-year-old goalkeeper who has played most recently in the Portuguese second division and the Slovak top flight — made seven saves.
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Spain won Euro 2024 and came into this tournament as favorites because they have the same midfield control and creative passing that they’ve always had. Specifically, they have arguably the best winger in the world in Lamine Yamal and another solid winger opposite him in Nico Williams. These players give the lineup fantastic spacing that no one else can — but neither player started the opening match and they combined to play about 20 total minutes.
If Yamal and Williams get progressively integrated as the tournament progresses, Spain’s performances should continue to improve. But an opening draw to the weakest team in their group has opened up the possibility that La Roja finish second in their group. The DTAI lab’s projections give them only a 68% chance of finishing in first ahead of the next set of matches.
And guess what probably happens if Spain finish second in their group? In the round of 32, they’ll play the winner of Group J: the one with Jordan, Algeria, Austria … and Argentina.
Sure, Kylian Mbappé scored twice and briefly leaped ahead of Lionel Messi on the all-time World Cup goal-scoring list. But Michael Olise was the best player on the field in the 3-1 win over Senegal.
Despite starting the leading goal scorer in LaLiga, the player of the year in the Bundesliga, a player who starts on the wing for the two-time-defending Champions League winners, and the current Ballon d’Or holder, France generated one shot in the first half against Senegal. One. It was the worst attacking half you’ll ever see from a presumptive World Cup favorite.
What changed in the second 45? Olise moved from the wing to more of a central attacking midfield role. He basically displaced Ousmane Dembélé — you know, the player who everyone voted as the best in the world last year? — and ripped apart Senegal.
In the second half alone, Olise generated 0.93 expected assists worth of chances and took two shots of his own. He completed three through balls, including the one that broke the game open:
MAGIC MBAPPÉ 🇫🇷
He scores his first goal of the 2026 FIFA World Cup for France pic.twitter.com/HcLPFkkp4X
— FOX Sports (@FOXSports) June 16, 2026
Normally, creating this much danger in 45 minutes requires lots of risky passes and living with a bunch of turnovers. This was not normal, though: Olise completed 26 of his 27 passes in the second half.
Now, it’s hard to see Olise having a dominant tournament without being overshadowed by Mbappe. As we saw Tuesday, Olise playing well is going to lead to lots of one-on-ones with the opposing keeper for Mbappe, and that’s going to lead to lots of goals for Mbappe. Imagine what these guys might do against Iraq or that incredibly shaky Norway backline over the next two group stage matches.
But I don’t know. What Olise did Tuesday is impossible to ignore — even among the most casual fans. One guy might get all the goals, but the other guy is the one who’s dribbling past three defenders and slipping in millimeter-perfect through balls, over and over and over again.
Sure, Messi was aided by some questionable goalkeeping from Luca Zidane on the first two goals, but come on:
On a day when both Mbappe and Erling Haaland each scored twice, Messi responded by ripping off a hat trick, tying Miroslav Klose atop the all-time men’s World Cup goals leaderboard, and passing Pele for the most goal contributions (24 goals plus assists) in the history of the tournament.
I’m running out of things to say about Messi. I emptied the clip four years ago when I called him the greatest athlete of all time. The career arc was complete, the greatest professional soccer career got the one thing it was missing. Heck, he was already 35 in 2022.
MESSI SCORES HIS FIRST CAREER FIFA WORLD CUP HAT TRICK 🇦🇷
SCENES IN KANSAS CITY pic.twitter.com/HqeRkLGRay
— FOX Sports (@FOXSports) June 17, 2026
I didn’t expect a ton from Messi in this tournament — he’s 39 in a week, he has been playing in MLS since 2023, and he’s getting injured every couple of weeks now. And well, on the defensive end, the proper expectation turned out to be “nothing at all.”
It’s hilarious to see his movement when Argentina lose possession. Messi wanders around, jutting out his head as if he’s sniffing for the ball, and all of his teammates have to cover for him. Lautaro Martínez, Argentina’s actual center forward, was frequently dropping deep into his own half to cover for Messi against Algeria.
But I don’t think he’s actually wandering. He’s thinking about where he needs to be whenever the other team finally loses the ball. And though this prevents Argentina from tilting the field like — and I can’t believe I’m saying this — the U.S. did in its first match, it also creates a threat where most teams can’t generate any.
If you look at how pretty much all of the favorites in this tournament move the ball up the field, it’s either through their fullbacks or through the half-spaces — the wider areas, essentially between the edges of the six-yard box and the edges of the penalty area. This makes sense because, well, the goal is in the center of the field, so defending teams pack the middle with the highest density of bodies.
But, per Futi, here’s how Argentina progressed the ball up the field in the opener. Solid lines are passes, dotted lines are carries:
Teams just don’t do this anymore, perhaps, because there’s only one team with Messi, somehow still so good at 39 years old that he’s able to make up for doing absolutely nothing on the defensive end.
Messi is now both the youngest and the oldest Argentinean player to score at a World Cup. But I think this is my favorite stat from his first match of 2026: Messi has now scored 10 World Cup goals in his 30s. Among the billions of human beings who have been alive at some point over the past 100 years, only eight of them have scored more than 10 World Cup goals … across their entire careers.
Portugal were awful against Congo DR. Look at this!
Again: purple are shots, orange are goals, and the larger the circle, the higher the xG.
When I predicted before the tournament that Portugal would get dumped out of the group stages, it was mainly because I forced myself to choose one favorite to disappoint — not because I actually would’ve staked any kind of personal equity on it actually happening. But the reasons I chose Portugal were apparent Wednesday.
The first reason: Roberto Martinez just isn’t a great manager. The best thing about him is that he tends to just shove all of his best attackers on the field, but Portugal’s best attackers are all basically the same players: midfielders who want to drop deeper and get the ball at their feet.
In the first half, that led to tons of possession and barely any shots. It got a little better in the second half when wingers Sérgio Conceição and Rafael Leão came on, but they still barely created any quality chances during that stretch.
The second reason: They’re the weakest defensive team among the favorites. They didn’t concede a ton of chances against Congo, but there were plenty of dangerous attacks that either didn’t turn into a shot or were wasted with long-range attempts.
Tomás Araújo and Renato Veiga struggled to deal with 50-50 balls against Yoane Wissa and Cédric Bakambu, and it turns out the Vitinha and João Neves pairing is easy to pass through when it’s not protected by a fierce press like they have at PSG.
The third reason: Martinez insists on playing their 41-year-old striker for 90 minutes every game.
There’s a world in which Cristiano Ronaldo contributes in some way to a fantastic Portugal team — likely off the bench, when they’re pinning the opponent inside the box. There are very few, if any, worlds in which playing Ronaldo for the entire match is what gets this team to where it needs to get to.
Ronaldo doesn’t defend anymore, but he doesn’t even stress the opposition defense. Against Congo, he was frequently standing offside, waiting for the attacking to catch up with him.
At his peak, Ronaldo was world soccer’s best arriver — crashing into the penalty area right as the ball was arriving. Now, he’s so much easier to defend because he just stands in that space and waits for the ball. He stole a potential goal from Bruno Fernandes in the second half — and that about sums it all up.
Ronaldo gets a chance at goal for Portugal 🇵🇹 pic.twitter.com/0YU37MmQHU
— FOX Sports (@FOXSports) June 17, 2026
Portugal’s young and in-their-prime stars can still turn this around, but will their manager and their greatest player actually let them do it?
OK, fine. England were fun. I don’t actually believe that manager Thomas Tuchel wants his team playing such an up-and-down game, even if England utterly dominated the balance of chances and Croatia scored two of the goals of the tournament from nine low-probability attempts on goal.
Maybe I’m wrong, but I’d imagine we see England revert to more of the squeeze-the-life-out-of-the-game approach going forward. And I also wonder if this game might’ve looked very different if Croatia didn’t immediately bounce back from deficits with a pair of wondergoals.
But what we ended up getting was Harry Kane turning into Andrea Pirlo, Jude Bellingham turning into Jude Bellingham from 2024 and England outshooting the Croatians by a 22-9 margin. Futi also tracks dangerous attacks — possessions that increase a team’s likelihood of scoring a goal by a significant amount without necessarily leading to a shot — and England generated 13 and conceded only five.
I like to think that this is the way. Research has shown that higher-event games favor the more talented team. The logic is simple: If you have more talent, that talent is more likely to show itself when there are more attacking opportunities in a given game. With fewer chances for both teams, randomness is more likely to win out. But most managers don’t feel this way, and I’d bet that Tuchel would rather have, say, six dangerous attacks and concede only one.
What Tuchel definitely wants, though: the 0.92 xG his team generated from set pieces, second only to Bosnia-Herzegovina through the first round of matches.
Ronald Koeman won everything other than the World Cup as a player. Despite being a center back and deep-lying midfielder, he led the Champions League in goal scoring in 1993-94.
Carlo Ancelotti made 26 appearances for Italy and won the Champions League (then, the European Cup) with AC Milan in back-to-back seasons.
Guess it’s not so easy when you can’t pass the ball back to your goalkeeper, huh? Both coaches put in massive stinkers in the first games of the tournament.
Koeman pushed Netherlands into an uber-conservative defensive shell after they took the lead against Japan, and the same thing happened that always happens when a coach tries to protect a one-goal lead: They gave up a goal and drew the match. The Dutch have enough talent to keep opponents away from their goal with possession and push for a two-goal win. This was embarrassing.
Ancelotti, meanwhile, is one of the greatest managers in the history of the sport — and he might have been even worse in his opening match with Brazil. Credit to him for making subs at halftime to steady things a little bit, but well, he’s also the one who selected the starting XI that needed to be completely revamped after 45 minutes.
The Brazil midfield of Casemiro and Bruno Guimarães, genuinely two of the best in the Premier League this past season, looked ancient and incredibly unorganized. Most notably, there was no apparent plan for how to get the ball up the field to Vinícius Júnior and Raphinha. Morocco are one of the better defensive teams in the tournament; they weren’t just going to let Brazil move the ball into the attacking third for free.
Both Brazil and the Netherlands are the kind of talented but imperfect sides who could make a run this summer if their manager presses enough of the right buttons and figures out how to amplify their strengths and cover up their weaknesses. None of that happened against Japan and Morocco.
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