One of baseball’s most disappointing teams a year ago is the first to 30 wins this year. The Atlanta Braves, after going 76-86 in 2025, reached 30 wins with Wednesday night’s victory over the Chicago Cubs at Truist Park (ATL 4, CHC 1). The Braves are 30-13 and reached 30 wins before any other team reached 29 wins. Atlanta also has baseball’s best run differential by a healthy margin:
- Braves: +93
- Yankees: +69
- Dodgers: +63
- Brewers: +54
- Cubs: +41
“It comes from (new manager Walt Weiss) with the culture he’s put in this clubhouse,” super utility man Mauricio Dubón mentioned after hitting a two-run homer in Wednesday’s win (via MLB.com). “The way he gives his support and everything. I think that’s why everybody’s trying to go out there and grind.”
To be sure, Weiss deserves some credit, but Atlanta’s success starts with the guys on the field. A rotation that is missing three starters due to elbow surgery (Spencer Schwellenbach, AJ Smith-Shawver, Hurston Waldrep) has been one of baseball’s best, ranking second with a 3.04 ERA and sixth with a 3.74 xERA. The latter, expected ERA, reflects the ability to limit hard contact.
Bryce Elder, one of the game’s least effective starters from 2024-25, leveled up thanks to a new cutter and heavy emphasis on his slider. Spencer Strider returned earlier this month and looks like vintage Spencer Strider. Chris Sale is Chris Sale. The rotation could have crumbled after all those injuries. Instead, it’s been among the very best starting staffs in baseball.
The Braves lead baseball with 5.51 runs per game and that’s without getting much from Austin Riley (86 OPS+) and not as much as usual from Ronald Acuña Jr. (113 OPS+) before his hamstring injury. 2025 Rookie of the Year Drake Baldwin is now a 2026 MVP candidate. Matt Olson provides excellence at the plate and in the field as he marches up the consecutive games played list.
All things considered, the Braves have the best possible offense. They have the fourth-lowest team strikeout rate (20.5%) and also the third-highest barrel rate (9.9%). That means they put the ball in play a lot and they hit the ball hard in the air consistently. It is the best of both worlds. Lots of contact and lots of extra-base damage, and it’ll get better once Acuña returns.
There is a long way to go in a long season, but the Braves have banked a lot of wins. Going 60-59 the rest of the way gets them to 90 wins and would almost assure them of a postseason spot. Going 65-54 gets them to 95 wins and likely locks in the NL East title and a Wild Card Series bye. Look how much they’ve improved their various postseason odds, per FanGraphs:
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Postseason odds
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79.0%
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97.4%
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NL East odds
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36.0%
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88.0%
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Wild Card Series bye odds
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29.3%
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70.1%
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With all due respect to the Miami Marlins and surprisingly competent Washington Nationals, the New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies were Atlanta’s biggest NL East competition coming into 2026, and both started so poorly while the Braves started so well that the division race feels over. It’s not over — there are still more than 110 games to play — but the Braves have an enormous head start.
Rotation and overall pitching health is the single biggest threat to Atlanta’s 2026. They’re already down three starters and can’t really afford to lose anyone else long-term. Every team needs its pitchers to stay healthy (duh), but the Braves are especially vulnerable wth Schwellenbach, Smith-Shawver, and Waldrep already out. Keeping guys on the field is priority No. 1 now.
Otherwise, the Braves have all the ingredients needed to contend for the World Series. They have a legitimate ace in Sale, the offense has a special contact/power blend, and Robert Suarez and Raisel Iglesias are a dynamite 1-2 punch in the bullpen. If they manage to stay healthy throughout the summer, the Braves will be a force to be reckoned with in October.
