Well, I guess we found out what’s wrong with Garrett Crochet.
The Red Sox ace hasn’t looked quite right since Spring Training, and on Wednesday, the team unveiled he will be going on the IL with inflammation in his throwing shoulder. It’s an injury that will keep him out until at least the second week of May, but that’s just the minimum. And you can’t always assume the best-case scenario when it comes to pitcher injuries.
The Red Sox haven’t given any further details on the injury at this point, and Crochet painted an optimistic portrait when he spoke with the media Wednesday, saying it was “just some fatigue I was feeling in my last start.”
He acknowledged it was something he started feeling during Spring Training, which makes sense. Crochet didn’t look especially sharp during spring competition, and acknowledged he was struggling to get the feel for his four-seamer fastball, especially. When the season started, there were some weird low velocity readings in some starts, and his arm angle continued to drop – from 38 degrees in 2024 to 35 in 2025 and now 32 degrees in 2026. A lower arm slot isn’t necessarily a sign of injury, just like a velocity dip isn’t. But add those two things together with the fact that Crochet has at times – including in his most recent start – gone away from his signature cutter, and it’s been clear for more than a month that something wasn’t right with him.
The question now is what, specifically, is wrong. Crochet’s quotes focused on a “loss of strength” in the shoulder starting in spring, and that’s what the rehab process will focus on. If that’s all that is wrong, then we might be in line for a relatively short stint on the IL. Maybe not quite short enough to come off the IL in the minimum amount of time, but possibly. But the vague nature of the injury designation also highlights the uncertainty here – the average pitcher who goes on the IL over the past five seasons with shoulder inflammation misses 46 days, while the median amount of time missed is closer to 30 days. Hopefully, we’re looking at something on the shorter side of that timetable, but it’s impossible to say at this point.
What we can say is that this does put off some potentially difficult decisions for the Red Sox. Payton Tolle dominated in his first start after being promoted last week when Sonny Gray went on the IL, but with his struggles Tuesday, it was fair to wonder if he was going to remain in the rotation when Sonny Gray returns next week. But with this Crochet injury, Tolle is probably going to get at least two or three more turns to show what he can do, and that puts added pressure on Brayan Bello, too. Bello struggled yet again Wednesday and continues to sport an ERA north of 9.00, which is obviously untenable. He’ll have a few more tries to right the ship, and if he doesn’t, his job might be even more at risk than Tolle’s. But either way, both have a bit of runway now. I’m pulling for Tolle to take the job and run with it, but he’ll have to be better than his most recent start to do so.
As for Crochet: You stash him. Obviously. It’s possible this injury becomes trickier than expected and costs him months, but right now we don’t have any reason to think that’ll be the case. And, while he has struggled at times this season, we’ve also still clearly seen ace upside from him. And now that we have this explanation for why things have gone wrong when they have, hopefully, he can get healthy and return looking more like himself. We’ll be watching his rehab assignments closely to see what his cutter and four-seamer look like, but I certainly haven’t lost faith in him yet.
If anything, this might be a reason to try to trade for Crochet. It’s a super risky proposition, but if you can get him at a significant discount – say, the price of a pitcher who entered the season ranked 40th or later – it could be worth the risk. The risk is real, but it’s at least possible he comes out of this in better shape than he went into it. That’s the hope, at least.
Here’s what else you need to know about from Wednesday’s action around MLB:
Thursday’s top waiver-wire targets
Here’s who we’re looking to add coming out of Wednesday’s action:
Cade Cavalli, SP, Nationals (28%) – You know how many pitchers have had back-to-back starts with double-digit strikeouts this season? With Cavalli pulling it off Wednesday, that makes three: Cavalli, Jose Soriano, and Kevin Gausman. That’s … not as impressive a list as I expected, though Soriano and Gausman are at least good pitchers, and may be great ones. Expand it to include last year, however, and you mostly have a list of the best pitchers in baseball; at the very least, I think the 15 pitchers who have strung together at least two consecutive double-digit strikeout starts since the start of 2024 is also a list of 15 must-start pitchers. And, now, Cade Cavalli. Should we include him on that list? I’m not ready to make that case, but given the pedigree of the other names on that list, you have to take Cavalli extremely seriously right now. Must-roster pitcher? I don’t feel totally comfortable making that claim, but I think we should probably treat him that way right now.
Jared Jones, SP, Pirates (36%) – As a general rule, I’m going to be pretty skeptical about pitchers coming back from the internal brace procedure. It’s far from a death sentence for any pitcher’s career, but it also doesn’t seem to have quite as good a track record as Tommy John surgery does at this point. But I’m also going to keep an eye on a talented young pitcher like Jones, no matter what kind of injury they’re coming back from, and Jones gave us plenty to be interested in during his first rehab start Wednesday. He threw three perfect innings at Low-A and averaged 99.1 mph with his fastball, which was actually up 1.8 mph from when we last saw him. His curveball was up even more, and his sinker showed a half-foot more horizontal break, giving it even more separation from his four-seamer. Jones wasn’t a must-start pitcher even before the injury, and skepticism seems reasonable given the nature of the injury he’s coming back from. But we could all use an interesting, upside-y dart throw at starting pitcher, couldn’t we? Jones is as interesting as any other injury stash who is still likely four weeks away, at least.
Cole Young, 2B, Mariners (43%) – For most of the first month of the season, Young was looking like another in a long line of Spring Training flashes in the pan. But he’s heating up lately, with multiple hits in four of his past five games to drive his OPS near .800. And that’s when you realize that his underlying numbers are actually pretty good – he entered play Wednesday with a .285 expected batting average and .446 expected slugging percentage. He doesn’t seem to have many huge positives in his profile, but he does have a notable lack of real weaknesses right now, and he’s matching his pretty good raw power and bat control with a 28% pulled-air rate, a sign that more power might be incoming. There’s something here, and finding help at second base is tough enough that it’s worth taking a flier on Young if you don’t have one of the rare, true difference makers at the position.
Vaughn Grissom, 2B, Angels (3%) – Say what you want about the Angels, but I’ve always appreciated their willingness to take a flier on disappointing former prospects who are still in their mid-20s. It usually doesn’t work, but they’ve gotten quite a lot out of their patience in Jo Adell, someone other teams with more viable options might have given up on. My expectations aren’t especially high for Grissom anymore, but they were at one point, and he still seems to have really good bat-to-ball skills, and he’s starting to produce with his opportunities lately. He went 1 for 4 Wednesday, but the one hit was his first homer of the season, and it comes after he had multiple hits in three of his previous four games. That’s starting to lead to more opportunities, and there’s at least a chance he could be a viable source of very cheap batting average in deeper leagues.
Luis Severino, SP, Athletics vs. KC (37%) – For Severino, unlike many of the starters we’ll talk about tonight, the quality of stuff actually isn’t the problem. He’s sitting comfortably in the high-90s with his fastballs and closer to 95 than ever before with his cutter, and his strikeout rate is up to 24.7%, the highest it has been since 2022. The problem this season has been the control, as he walked 20 in his first 19.2 innings of the season, which isn’t going to work for anyone. But he’s walked just three over the past two starts, and not coincidentally, those have been his two best starts of the season. There’s some in trusting him ahead of a two-start week, but I don’t mind streaming Severino for starts against the Phillies and Orioles away from Sacramento, and I wouldn’t be totally shocked if he was useful beyond that, too.
Ryan Zeferjahn, RP, Angels (1%) – The door is wide open for the Angels’ closer job after Jordan Romano’s release, and nobody seems all that interested in taking it. Working in a non-save but high-leverage situation in the ninth inning Wednesday, Drew Pomeranz blew the game, allowing a run on a hit and a couple of walks while recording one out, and his ERA is now approaching 9.00. Zeferjahn hasn’t been much better – he allowed a run Wednesday in two innings himself to push his ERA to 5.51 – but he’s missing plenty of bats (including four strikeouts Wednesday), and might be capable of taking advantage of the opportunity. He hasn’t been great so far, but he has the bat-missing ability to do it and is worth a look if you’re desperate for saves in deep leagues.
Wednesday’s standouts
George Kirby,Mariners @MIN: 5.2 IP, 8 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 5 K – Kirby is getting good results right now, but the lack of swinging strikes has been making me nervous. Statcast had him throwing a new sweeper in lieu of his typical slider in this one, and that generated five of his 11 whiffs, but I’m not sure this isn’t a classification issue – his slider has been getting more horizontal break this season than previous seasons, and this might just be the same pitch getting reclassified. Either way, I’m not sure this is a sea change for Kirby, whose non-slider pitchers have just struggled to generate many whiffs this season. His track record is strong enough that I’m betting on Kirby getting back to the 22-24% strikeout range, but he’s still making me feel a little queasy right now, despite mostly solid results.
Gavin Williams, Guardians vs. TB: 7.2 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 9 K – If you’re an optimist, that’s two dominant starts in his past three tries and three with at least nine strikeouts in his past six. If you’re a pessimist, it’s two dominant starts sandwiched around a six-run stinker. I’m a pessimist who believes this kind of volatility will probably just always be a part of Williams’ game, but it’s not like I don’t believe in Williams at all – he’s my No. 29 SP right now. You might want me to rank him higher, but I think 29 is fine.
Nathan Eovaldi, Rangers vs. NYY: 7 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 7 K – I never really worried too much about Eovaldi’s slow start, and he’s rewarded that faith with great starts in four of his past five. It’s been a more frustrating ride than you were probably expecting from a guy who should be dominant when healthy, but I just don’t see much in his profile to indicate he’s likely to be anything less than a must-start pitcher when he’s on the mound moving forward.
Sandy Alcantara, Marlins @LAD: 6 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 4 K – I still want to see more strikeouts here, but it’s been nice to see Alcantara stabilize lately after it looked like things may be going off the rails around mid-April. If he’s more like a 7 K/9 guy, he can still be a very valuable pitcher for Fantasy with his good control and unparalleled volume, but to get back to being a true impact pitcher, we’d like to see that strikeout rate tick up a notch or two. He might benefit from going back to deemphasizing his four-seamer a bit, as he did here.
Bubba Chandler, Pirates vs. STL: 5 IP, 3 H, 3 ER, 4 BB, 6 K – He’s still figuring it out, and it’s frustrating. I get it. Chandler just hasn’t been very useful so far this season, and it’s not a fluke – he entered tonight’s start with a 5.27 xERA that was actually worse than his top-line mark. The control is the primary issue, and it still was here. But here’s the thing: I just don’t believe anyone you’re likely to add on waivers has anywhere near the same kind of upside as Chandler if and when he figures it out. I don’t know when that’s going to happen, though I do believe it will. If you’re in a league where only, say, 250 players are rostered, and there’s a lot of churn on the end of rosters, you might be able to justify dropping Chandler. But I look at it like this in most leagues: You’ve got a bench for a reason. Use it to stash a player as talented as Chandler.
Taj Bradley, Twins vs SEA: 7 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 7 K – I don’t know if there’s a pitcher in Fantasy I find as frustrating to try to analyze as Bradley. When he’s on, he looks like an ace, and he was on tonight – generating 18 swinging strikes on 114 pitches. But he was pretty bad the start before this one and has generally just been almost impossible to rely on in the past. His 2.85 ERA suggests that may be changing this season, but he’s still getting hit hard and still has really shaky control. If I have him on my roster, I’d be trying to trade him for someone I have more confidence in.
JR Ritchie, Braves vs. DET: 5.1 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 4 BB, 4 K – The good news for Ritchie Wednesday is that Reynaldo Lopez made his bullpen debut for the Braves, and his velocity was down even more than it was out of the rotation. The Braves seem to believe Lopez has some mechanical tweaks to make in the ‘pen that can get him right, but as long as he’s working in the low-90s in short spurts, I don’t think they’re going to be in a rush to get him back in the rotation, so Ritchie has some runway. But he has to pitch better himself! I don’t quite know if Ritchie has ace upside, so he’ll have to become a reliable option quickly to secure his spot, and this was a disappointing follow-up to an excellent debut. I’m holding, but I’m not convinced Ritchie is going to be a difference maker for Fantasy.
Jameson Taillon, Cubs @SD: 7 IP, 3 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 6 K – It’s like what I mentioned about Arenado up there: Major-league players are here for a reason, and they’re capable of looking great for stretches. The difference between the stars and everyone else isn’t the ability to have starts like this as a one-off; it’s that they can do it regularly. I have no reason to believe Taillon can, but he’s still useful against the right matchups, and that could include next week’s two-start week against the Reds and Rangers.
Elmer Rodriguez, Yankees @TEX: 4 P, 4 H, 2 ER, 4 BB, 3 K – Rodriguez wasn’t bad in his MLB debut, but given that Carlos Rodon figures to be back within the next two weeks and Gerrit Cole should be back a few weeks after that, I don’t think he did enough to justify Fantasy players running out to add him. The 21-year-old will matter eventually, but you can probably safely look past him right now.
Brandon Sproat, Brewers vs. ARI: 4.1 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 5 K – This started as a promising outing for Sproat, but the Diamondbacks got to him in the fourth inning and chased him in the fifth. There’s potential for him to grow into a useful Fantasy option at some point, and the Brewers are as good an organization as any to wring it out of him. But he’s not there right now.
Erick Fedde, White Sox vs. LAA: 7 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 6 K – Good start! Fedde is capable of those, and he’s not a totally uninteresting pitcher for Fantasy. But how interested you should ever be is almost directly correlated with his next matchup or two. He gets the Angels for the next one and the Royals after that, which might be enough to make him moderately useful for what looks like a one-start week.
Andre Pallante, Cardinals @PIT: 6 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 6 K – Apologies if I sound like a broken record here, but we had an unusual number of good starts from pitchers I just don’t have much faith or interest in. Pallante did get seven whiffs with his slider, which is actually a very good swing-and-miss pitch for him. I’m just not sure the rest of the arsenal is good enough for that to matter most of the time. He’s a groundballer with mediocre control, and I don’t think you have to add him for an upcoming one-start week against the Brewers.
Tomoyuki Sugano, Rockies @CIN: 5.1 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 2 K – Nope. I mean, look, kudos to the veteran for hanging tough and putting together a string of nice starts for the Rockies. That’s a nice story. But I don’t see anything here. His 2.84 ERA is paired with an xERA more than twice as high, and even in a two-start week (against the Mets at home and Phillies on the road), I don’t think Sugano is worth the risk outside of deeper points leagues, perhaps.
Nolan Arenado, 3B, Diamondbacks – I ran into a couple of problems with this newsletter. For one thing, because I’m writing it every day, it’s just a lot more natural to focus on pitching performances than hitting performances. You get way more information about pitchers every day than hitters. And for another, there are always stretches in the season where players are performing well, and I just don’t think it matters at all for your Fantasy teams. I’m trying to help you win your leagues, and not every hot streak matters. That’s where I’m at with Arenado right now. I know he’s an almost certain future Hall of Famer, and he’s been hot lately, with five homers and 16 hits in his past 13 games … and I just don’t really care. That’s not to say there’s nothing here – his xwOBA over the past 50 PA is .407, which is legitimately very good! – but I’m not seeing much reason to think he’s a fundamentally different hitter than the one who has been a Fantasy also-ran for the past few years. He’s still not hitting the ball hard at all, and his strikeout rate is actually the worst of his career. If you want to play the hot hand here and add Arenado at the weak third base position until he cools off, that’s fine. I just don’t expect it to last.
