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We’re more than a third of the way through the 2026 MLB season and closing in on the halfway point, so we’re past the point where “small sample size” can be used as the excuse for a slow start. Is “regression to the mean” the case? Perhaps, but apply it carefully.
Indeed, one of the unfortunate storylines through the first two-plus months of the season is the number of big stars who aren’t putting up their usual numbers.
Let’s dig into some of those players and a few clubs with teamwide issues. We’ll make a statement derived from their early performances and then give a verdict on whether that statement is real … or not.
After his average dropped to .175 (it would eventually fall as low as .166) last weekend, Manny Machado seemed to blame “analytics” for his bad start. An easy target, no doubt. His quote:
“The game’s evolving, man. It’s definitely getting harder to play. It’s definitely getting more strategic. I just wish we can get the analytics out of the way. I think there’s too many stats out there. Too many stats, way too many numbers. I don’t even know half of the stuff that goes up there. I look at the board sometimes, and I even ask some of the guys, like, ‘What is WCCVBB, whatever it is? What are these names that are being created?’ I mean, it’s just crazy to even keep up with.”
It was a good rant, to be sure. And Machado wasn’t really blaming analytics for his funk. He eventually fell back to a Nuke LaLoosh line of reasoning: “It goes back to old-school stuff, man. Just see the ball and hit the ball.”
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The most important thing he reported wasn’t dissing analytics but how the game is getting harder — and it’s especially harder when you’re about to turn 34 years old, like Machado will in July. The analytics say his slow start might be the result of an age-old problem: Machado’s bat speed is slowing down.
We have data on this going back to 2023, when more than 66% of his swings qualified as a “fast swing” (75 mph or faster). That percentage fell to 53% in 2024, 43% in 2025 and is at 41% so far in 2026. Machado still has plus bat speed — 77th percentile among all hitters — so the bat slowing down is only part of what’s happening here. In fact, he’s pulling the ball in the air a little more often than in the past three seasons, which is why he has at least hit 11 home runs alongside his meager .172 average.
Digging deeper, Machado’s damage on fly balls isn’t all that different from 2025 (.856 slugging versus .805 in 2026, although his average exit velocity on those fly balls is down 3.7 mph). His numbers are terrible because of what’s happened on ground balls:
2024: .268
2025: .242
2026: .101
Even if we gave him a .242 average on grounders, matching 2025, that would mean an additional 11 hits, raising his average from .172 to .220. Better, but still not great.
Verdict: Real
Machado won’t hit .172 all season, as this start is partially the result of that low BABIP on grounders. Expect some upward regression there, but there are still enough red flags here to suggest that he’s no longer a reliable middle-of-the-order bat. This is what happens to most hitters at age 33 or 34 — and, remember, while Machado was remarkably consistent the past three seasons, his 2023-25 numbers were down from his 2020-22 peak years with the Padres. Only seven more years left on his contract.
Sticking with the Padres, Tatis’ dramatic walk-off home run Wednesday was somehow just his second of 2026 after averaging 24 in 133 games over the past three seasons.
His problem is a little easier to explain: too many worm burners. Out of 157 qualified hitters, he has the 15th-highest ground ball rate. That doesn’t explain everything, though — Tampa Bay’s Junior Caminero has the same ground ball rate and has 14 home runs. Tatis still has big power potential — his overall hard-hit rate is in the 91st percentile — but he’s been unable to hit the ball hard in the air.
His issue there is he’s rarely pulling it in the air — his home run Wednesday is an exception. Tatis’ pull fly ball rate peaked at 22.2% in 2021 and has fallen each season since then — yes, that’s post-PED suspension and also post-shoulder surgery in 2022 — and is down to 9% in 2026. His average launch angle peaked in 2021 and has also declined each season since, down to 3.4 degrees in 2026. Grounders plus opposite-field fly balls equals bad home run math.
Verdict: Not real
Is it mechanics? Tatis has gone back to a stance that is very similar to how he hit in 2023: a wider stance and more closed (14 degrees open compared to 38 degrees in 2025). It hasn’t worked. Maybe more tinkering is necessary.
Or it could be more of a mental thing. If that’s the case, maybe he’s finally getting it going. His first home run on May 30 was a 451-foot blast. He doubled off the wall Tuesday, a 113.5 mph laser beam, part of a four-hit night. The walk-off home run was 106 mph. Unlike Machado, Tatis is in his prime. There should be no reason for his power output to suddenly stop. The good news is the Padres have managed to go 35-32 despite Machado and Tatis (and Jackson Merrill) struggling. With the worst OPS in the majors, the offense can go nowhere but up from here.
Guerrero is hitting .282 and has a .375 OBP, but with only three home runs, his slugging percentage is just .365 — ranking 120th out of 157 qualified batters. Guerrero doing his best Luis Arraez impersonation is not helping his Blue Jays. He’s on pace for just 33 extra-base hits. From a player who has had as many as 78 extra-base hits in a season and who looked like the best hitter in the world last postseason, this doesn’t make any sense.
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“I’m not feeling right, and you guys can tell that,” Guerrero told reporters back in May. “I’m just looking to hit one ball very hard. It will stay in my head and my mind. I know things are going to change.”
It hasn’t changed — he’s on a 21-game homerless drought.
The basic advanced numbers don’t tell us much, with his ground ball rate, pull rate and average launch angle right around his career norms. He’s even striking out slightly less often. His hard-hit rate is down with some questionable swing decisions seeming to be playing a part — he’s making contact, but not doing any damage.
Verdict: Not real
Guerrero is too good to do this all season. It’s worth noting, however, that his power has been inconsistent at times through his career. His best season was in 2021, when he hit 48 home runs, was helped by a livelier ball and playing home games in Dunedin and Buffalo that season. That was also the only season he had a fly ball rate over 25%; it’s at 17.6% this season. Even last year, he finished with 23 home runs and 57 extra-base hits, far below the totals of the game’s top hitters, before taking off in the postseason.
Still, Guerrero will break out of this at some point. He entered last October having finished the season with a 21-game homerless streak. He hit 30 home runs in 2024 after having just seven through 24 games. It’s certainly odd for a hitter of Guerrero’s strength and contact ability to go through droughts like this, but it’s a recurring pattern. He’ll break out of it.
Guerrero isn’t the only Toronto hitter scuffling in 2026, as the Blue Jays’ runs per game has dropped from 4.93 (fourth in the majors) in 2025 to 4.07 (22nd) this season. They had the lowest strikeout rate in the majors last year and then tore it up in the postseason, hitting .285 while averaging 5.83 runs per game. See? All you have to do is put the ball in play.
You can blame injuries for the offensive woes — and that’s certainly part of it — but the Jays are still making contact at a high rate. Only the Tampa Bay Rays strike out less often. Their isolated power, however, has dropped from .162 (12th in the majors) in 2025 to .136 (26th) this season. Guerrero is down but so are George Springer, Daulton Varsho, Tyler Heineman and Davis Schneider. Nathan Lukes is hitting for average, but not power. Kazuma Okamoto replaced Bo Bichette and leads the team in home runs but hasn’t hit for Bichette’s high average. The team’s batting average on balls in play has declined from .298 last season to .289 in 2026. But the overall issue is mostly about the team-wide loss of power.
Verdict: Real
The Blue Jays had a lot of career and/or surprising years in 2025, so there was reasonable skepticism about the offense heading into the season. Springer was one of the best hitters in the league at age 35, unlikely to match that again at 36. Role players like Heineman, Schneider and Lukes were ultra valuable. Alejandro Kirk’s OPS was nearly 100 points higher than the previous two seasons. Bichette signed with the Mets.
FanGraphs projects the Jays to average 4.53 runs per game the rest of the way. Kirk should return this weekend after going down five games into the season (although Brandon Valenzuela has hit very well in his absence). Addison Barger, who has played just nine games, might also be back soon. The offense should be better the rest of the way, with a lot of that riding on Guerrero’s shoulders.
Will it be enough, though? Even averaging 4.53 runs would place the Jays just barely above the current MLB average of 4.47. That might not be good enough given their run prevention has been just a tick better than average as well.
In Wednesday’s 7-5 loss to the Rays, the Red Sox struck out 15 times, including 13 times against Tampa Bay starter Drew Rasmussen (a couple of late homers ended up making the game closer than it really was). The kicker though: Jarren Duran, Ceddanne Rafaela and Wilyer Abreu, hitting in the top three spots in the lineup, each struck out their first three plate appearances. That was the first time since at least 1900 that that had happened to the first three batters in a lineup.
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Yes, it’s been an ugly start in Boston.
The Red Sox are averaging 3.91 runs per game — only the Padres at 3.81 are scoring less often. That’s nearly a run less per game than last year’s 4.85 figure and would be Boston’s lowest offensive output since 1992 — a team that finished 73-89.
The consensus, certainly among Red Sox fans: They appear headed to that kind of record again.
Verdict: Real
I’ll be the last person to jump off the train, because I believed the Red Sox had a good team heading into the season, but the team has been joyless and lifeless so far. As the current four-game losing streak shows, the Red Sox have shown no signs of turning things around, even if a couple of hitters such as Duran and Caleb Durbin have been a little better of late.
The amazing/interesting thing here: The Red Sox are 10-21 at home, averaging just 3.29 runs per game at Fenway, which points directly to the lack of right-handed power outside of Willson Contreras. That was the biggest concern about the offense heading into the season and that’s how things have played out. Injuries to Garrett Crochet and Roman Anthony, the team’s top two projected players, have been a big blow, but there are disappointments up and down the roster — see the recently demoted Brayan Bello (2-6, 6.34 ERA).
I don’t want to completely give up on the Red Sox since the rotation aside from Bello has been pretty good, plus anything is possible in the wide-open American League, but the current .409 winning percentage would be the franchise’s worst since 1965 (not counting the shortened 2020 season). They’re not making the playoffs.
Did David Stearns and Steve Cohen have the worst offseason in MLB history?
• They didn’t want to pay Pete Alonso and now have worse offense and defense at first base.
• They gave up prospects to acquire Freddy Peralta, who is a mediocre 4-5 with a 4.04 ERA.
• They acquired injury-prone Luis Robert Jr., who hadn’t hit well in three years, to play center field. With the Mets, he’s … injured and hasn’t hit well.
• They signed Jorge Polanco, another injury-prone player. He has played 14 games.
• They made Bo Bichette the fourth-highest-paid player of 2026. He’s hitting .227 with a .277 OBP.
• They signed Devin Williams, who replaced Edwin Diaz as the closer. He has a 5.57 ERA.
• They traded Brandon Nimmo for Marcus Semien, since Semien had fewer years left on his contract. Fine. Except Semien is hitting .220 with negative WAR, while Nimmo has been playing well for Texas.
That’s seven significant moves in one offseason. It’s not that some of them haven’t worked out. It’s not just that all of them haven’t worked out. It’s that all of them haven’t worked out in a completely disastrous fashion (OK, Peralta hasn’t been a complete disaster).
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Frankly, it’s a miracle the Mets are even 29-38.
Verdict: Absolutely real
While I’m reluctant to write off the Red Sox, that’s not the case with the Mets. Fun fact to consider: They haven’t even played the Atlanta Braves or Philadelphia Phillies yet (they host the Braves this weekend and will play at Philly next week). It might start to get even worse.
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